Some great analysis of the relationship between loss of health insurance and resulting mortality has been done in a DailyKos diary by Jon Perr. www.dailykos.com/… Jon singles out a study of the early years of Romney Care in Massachusetts by Andrew Wilper and colleagues at the Harvard Medical School as an example of the most relevant analysis of the loss of coverage under the Affordable Care Act and expected mortality. www.ncpa.org/… Wilper and colleagues using the most advanced methods and complete data found that coverage under the Massachusetts health plan was associated with a forty percent drop in mortality after adjusting for demographics, health status and life choices like smoking. This increased mortality means that for every 830 persons who lose health insurance we can expect one to die.
Using this algorithm and data supplied by the new CBO analysis of Trumpcare www.cbo.gov/..., it can be estimated that the United States will experience 236,145 deaths under Trumpcare for those millions who will lose coverage they would have maintained under the Affordable Care Act. This is more deaths that we experienced in all of World War I and more than the total deaths in the Korean War, Vietnam War, Gulf War, Afganistan and Iraq conflicts. www.statisticbrain.com/…
Expected Trumpcare Deaths |
During First Decade Based on CBO Estimates and Harvard Medical School Analysis |
|
|
|
Year |
People Losing Insurance |
Expected Deaths |
|
|
|
2017 |
4,000,000 |
4,819 |
2018 |
14,000,000 |
16,867 |
2019 |
16,000,000 |
19,277 |
2020 |
21,000,000 |
25,301 |
2021 |
23,000,000 |
27,711 |
2022 |
23,000,000 |
27,711 |
2023 |
23,000,000 |
27,711 |
2024 |
24,000,000 |
28,916 |
2025 |
24,000,000 |
28,916 |
2026 |
24,000,000 |
28,916 |
|
|
|
Total |
|
236,145 |