Progressives across America are wringing their hands over the GOP’s latest attempts to screw over the common man and woman (AHCA). And political observers are rightfully focusing their attention on the Senate, because that is where the rubber will meet the road in this fight. Of course, it is an open question as to whether Paul Ryan (R-Asshole) can even get a bill out of the House — especially with Trump actively undermining him by promising things to the Freedom Caucus that will completely kill the bill. But lets assume that the GOP bill passes the House (again — far from certain) and lets also assume that McConnell follows his marching orders and places the bill directly on the floor, bypassing the normal committee process.
Alright. We know that this is a budget reconciliation bill, which would allow the Senate to pass the bill with just 51 votes. But before we even get to counting votes, there will be some pretty explosive procedural fights that will probably come out in favor of the Democrats.
The reconciliation bill contains provisions repealing the individual and corporate insurance coverage mandates. The Democrats will object to the insertion of those provisions, claiming that they are regulatory issues, not budgetary ones. The Senate parliamentarian will almost certainly agree (even though Chief Justice John Roberts considers the individual mandate to be a tax — oy vey). It will then be up to Mitch McConnell or Mike Pence to either sustain or overrule the parliamentarian’s determination. Something tells me that McConnell would never overrule the parliamentarian on this issue, because, in the deepest, darkest recesses of his stupid mind, he has some respect for the unique procedural institutions in the Senate and knows that this bill shouldn’t pass. And we all know that Pence is a Freedom Caucus lunatic— but something tells me he won’t be in the chamber that day, because there is a good chance the he himself would be overruled by a majority of the Senate.
Once the individual and corporate mandate repeal provisions are stripped from the reconciliation bill, the bill becomes, in effect, a completely discombobulated mess (not that it isn’t already). Most Senate Republicans would immediately realize that passing a repeal of the bill’s most popular provisions (Medicaid expansion and the exchange tax credits) while keeping the coverage mandates in place would be an extreme form of political suicide. And this is a problem that the GOP would completely own.
Assume that a majority of Senate Republicans want to continue with this suicide mission and make up for the loss of the coverage mandate repeal provisions by adding amendments to make the bill less politically disastrous. All of the Democrats are against this bill in ANY form (even Joe Manchin!), which means that the GOP can only afford 2 defections on the bill. I don't take the tough talk from John Cornyn or Lindsey Graham seriously (they are just trying to keep the bill from coming over to the Senate). If push comes to shove, Collins, Murkowski, and Cotton will vote against the bill, killing it. And then, after the Democrats and those three Republicans do the important work, Portman and Heller will come out of the woodwork to oppose the bill.