Polls closed tonight in Montana at 10 PM ET, where voters are choosing a successor to former Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke, who represents the state’s lone congressional district and resigned to join Donald Trump’s cabinet earlier this year. The candidates are wealthy Republican businessman Greg Gianforte, who lost a bid for governor last year, and Democrat Rob Quist, a popular folk musician.
Gianforte stunned the political world when he physically attacked a reporter the day before Election Day and was charged with assault. However, a large proportion of votes (perhaps two-thirds or more) were cast before the incident. Trump won Montana by a 56-35 margin last fall. Win or lose, Gianforte is scheduled to appear in court by June 7.
Robert Yoon of Inside Elections has put together a helpful look at the key counties to watch as the returns come in.
Results: Secretary of State | AP (statewide, by county)
Friday, May 26, 2017 · 2:09:38 AM +00:00 · David Nir
Just a few minutes after polls have closed and we already have our first numbers trickling in, but just 3 percent of precincts are reporting so far, according to the AP. A couple of notes:
1) In past elections, Montana has taken quite a long time to tally votes.
2) There’s reason to think that the first votes we see, which will likely be early and absentee votes, will favor Quist.
Friday, May 26, 2017 · 2:15:48 AM +00:00 · David Nir
The secretary of state’s office appears to be further along in the count than the AP, and the votes they’ve tallied so far do appear to be early votes, since they specify (at the moment) that 165 of 681 precincts are “partially” tallied. Quist is up 48-46 so far, with over 100,000 votes counted.
Friday, May 26, 2017 · 2:26:53 AM +00:00
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David Nir
As Geoffrey Skelley notes, Yellowstone County (home of Billings) is Montana's biggest. Gianforte is currently up by 20 points there in the early vote. He only prevailed there by 1 point last year, en route to a 4-point statewide loss. As Skelley suggests, it’s very hard to see how Gianforte can’t win if he’s doing this well in the state’s largest county, barring a massive Election Day collapse (which of course cannot be ruled out).