Ok, so two days ago, I wrote this article, giving my admittedly optimistic take on our election. I felt like Rob Quist could win the election with high turnout in our largest counties, and depressed in rural areas, with a little help from Mark Wicks. I wrote my diary as the Gianforte assault news was breaking, so I didn’t have a ton on it, but my thoughts were basically that it couldn’t help him, but probably wouldn’t hurt him much either, coming as late as it did.
First, that. I’ve seen plenty of comments here and elsewhere today to the effect of “Montana’s voters sure are violent, it appears the assault helped Gianforte.” Not true. This election was cooked, basically as soon as the early vote from the 5 or 6 largest counties reported at 8:15 or so. Quist lost the early vote by 20% in Yellowstone County, and lost the county by 19% overall. There’s a place where the assault moved some votes his way, as Gianforte should have won the E.D. vote in Yellowstone handily. Quist didn’t run up enough margin in Missoula, Lewis & Clark, or the reservation counties to offset Gianforte in the eastern, southwest, and northwest counties. Again, this election was baked in before yesterday.
OK, so that’s what happened, now my take on why it happened. One, this state, absent a strong driving force, local issue, etc., will default to its red status. Healthcare has the potential to be that issue, but it really hasn’t caught fire yet, I think because nobody’s sure where exactly we’re headed yet, and GOP voters aren’t willing to turn on them until they see the end result. Second, Gianforte, with a strong assist from 1 certain reporter at the Billings Gazette, did a wonderful job of exploiting Quist’s debt issues, and pounding on that until it sunk in. I have to believe it did. As anybody here from the west will tell you, personal responsibility, “handle your business,” is important.
Lastly, and I know nobody wants to hear this this morning, and I really don’t even want to say it, but Trump won here 6 months ago by 21 points. Gianforte’s predecessor, Ryan Zinke, won by 15%, against a much more accomplished and polished candidate. I don’t know if Juneau, or Mike Cooney, or somebody else could have won, but I know that Quist was not a strong enough candidate to overcome the redness of our electorate here. Jon Tester does it reliably, Steve Bullock has done it 3 times in a row, and Brian Schweitzer twice before him. It can be done here, but not by just anybody, it seems. Again, and I know we don’t like these damn moral victories, but things have shifted since the fall, and shifted fairly dramatically. These aren’t toss-up districts we’re losing in these specials. GA-06 is our best chance yet, and I hope and believe I’ll be commenting on somebody’s blog the next morning after an Ossoff win. Thanks again for reading my post-mortem stream of consciousness this morning, and hope it shed a little more light on what happened here.