New York Republican Rep. Chris Collins has been one of Trump’s most supporters in the House, and it’s tough to see him losing his 60-35 Trump Buffalo-area seat under any circumstances. Still, Collins seems intent to find out just how safe he actually is. Collins has championed Trumpcare, and he drew bad headlines at home when he went on CNN and admitted he hadn’t actually read the whole bill. Collins made things worse when the Buffalo News asked him if he was aware that Trumpcare would severely cut New York’s Essential Health Plan and he responded, “Explain that to me.”
It’s going to most likely take a perfect storm to make Collins vulnerable in an area this red, and Democrats need to find a viable candidate. There’s probably only one person who could give him a tough general election, and the New York Times reports that she is indeed being “approached by supporters” about a campaign. Kathy Hochul pulled off an improbable 2011 special election win for the previous version of this seat, and after redistricting gave her a seat that was almost half new to her, she lost to Collins just 51-49 as Mitt Romney was winning the 27th Congressional District 55-43.
Hochul was elected lieutenant governor in 2014, and she has yet to say anything publicly about her interest in seeking a rematch with Collins instead of running for re-election next year. However, Hochul has taken shots at her old rival throughout the healthcare debate, and after Trumpcare passed the House on Thursday, she took another swipe at him.
Hochul should have little trouble winning re-election next year if she decides to stay on the ticket with Gov. Andrew Cuomo, and running for Congress would definitely be a huge risk for her. Lieutenant governor of New York isn’t a particularly powerful post, but Hochul would get a huge promotion if Cuomo left early for whatever reason. And if Cuomo retired in 2022, a Lt. Gov. Hochul would be a contender to succeed him. Still, nothing is guaranteed at all, and Hochul would almost certainly face a tough primary for the governor's office.
If Hochul is truly interested in facing off with her old nemesis Collins, she may be able to dust off the playbook she used in 2011. Hochul focused her attention on then-House Budget Chair Paul Ryan’s budget, and framed the race as a battle to protect Medicare. Jane Corwin, the Republican Hochul defeated 47-42, couldn’t come up with a compelling counter-message, and Collins seems even less capable.
Monday, May 8, 2017 · 7:48:10 PM +00:00
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Jeff Singer
Hochul addressed the speculation over the weekend, but while she doesn’t sound incredibly excited about running against Collins, she didn’t exactly say no. Hochul told Spectrum News that “It is flattering, there is speculation in the New York Times that my supporters would like me to run, but I have to say that representing the entire state, including my home base of Western New York has been a privilege and I really want to continue doing that work.” That’s a statement that feels less Shermanesque than Sinemaesque.