With just four days to go before the special election in Georgia, Republican party insiders are bracing themselves for a complete meltdown. Via Politico:
The GOP is bracing for the prospect of a loss in Tuesday’s Georgia’s special election that could have far-reaching implications for President Donald Trump and his party’s fortunes in 2018.
As grim confidential polling data circulates among GOP strategists, interviews with nearly two dozen Republican operatives and officials reveal that they are preparing for the possibility of an unnerving defeat that could spur lawmakers to distance themselves from Trump and his already-troubled legislative agenda, and potentially encourage a wave of retirements.
How “grim” is GOP internal polling? Tidal-wave-in-2018 grim:
[S]everal private surveys taken over the last few weeks show Republican nominee Karen Handel trending downward, with one private party poll showing 30-year-old Democrat Jon Ossoff opening up a more than five-point lead in the Republican-oriented, suburban Atlanta seat.
“If we’re losing upper middle class, suburban seats in the South to a 30-year-old progressive liberal, we would be foolish not to be deeply concerned about the possibility that would exist for a tidal wave election for Democrats in 2018,” said Chip Lake, a Georgia-based Republican strategist and former Capitol Hill chief of staff.
Remember that a mere seven months ago, Tom Price won this seat 62% to 38%. Since the runoff in April, Karen Handel has never received even 50% in any of the public polling, and has trailed Jon Ossoff in all polls since early May. Currently, the polling average for June has Ossoff ahead by about three points, which is in line with the latest poll (by Trafalgar group, a Republican outfit), which has Ossoff up 50% to 47%.
The upshot: we’re in the final stretch of one of the most consequential elections ever.
The last time a special House contest meant so much was in February, 1974, in the midst of the Watergate scandal, when Democrats pulled off an upset victory for the Michigan congressional seat held by Gerald Ford, who had been named vice president. That win foreshadowed a Democratic landslide in midterm elections that November.
In November, 1974, Democrats picked up 49 seats in the House.