Vermont is one of only two states which has its Gubernatorial election occur every two years. Given this and the amount of money necessary to run a viable campaign (estimated around $1 million) many serious candidates are expected to announce or at least begin laying the groundwork by the end of the Summer. What follows are the potential Democratic candidates to Challenge Incumbent Governor Phil Scott (R) in 2018.
High caliber/not expected to run.
David Zuckerman: Current Lieutenant Governor (LG), former Progressive House Rep, Progressive Dem State Senator from Chittenden County. He’s said, "I might think about it in the fall, but it's pretty unlikely." He was endorsed in the 2016 primary by Bernie, one of his only VT primary endorsements. Zuckerman always seemed better suited as a successor to Bernie when he leaves the Senate, but that’s up to Zuckerman.
Jim Condos: Current Secretary of State (SOS), former state senator from Chittenden County. “I’m flattered, I never say never, but I plan to run for reelection.” Not a no, but clearly FAR from a yes. His region is pretty well represented among other candidates, so he wouldn’t have much of a home base.
TJ Donovan: Former Chittenden County state’s attorney of 10 years. He primaried incumbent Dem Attorney General Bill Sorrell in 2012 and lost 49-51. Sorrell retired in 2016 and Donovan ran for and won the AG seat. He stated: “I look forward to seeking reelection in 2018 as attorney general."
Incumbent Treasurer Beth Pearce: treasurer appointed in 2011 after the previous treasurer left to serve in the Shumlin administration. Pearce has been re-elected to the position since 2012 and is the only woman elected to statewide office. She seems uninterested, however: “I have said on many occasions that the office of treasurer is the only elected position that I would seek.”
Second Tier: Former officials
Deb Markowitz: 2010 gubernatorial candidate, former SOS and natural resources secretary. She stated: “I have no thought of running.” Her 2010 primary campaign was underwhelming for someone who started as the frontrunner and was the only candidate who had been recently elected statewide.
Shap Smith: Former House Speaker, he has stated: “Not at this time.” Smith Ran for governor in 2016, dropped out due to his wife’s breast cancer when she recovered faster than expected, he jumped into the LG race, fairly late, and lost to David Zuckerman (see above).
Doug Racine: Former LG under Howard Dean, Racine was the Dem nominee for governor in 2002 and lost to Republican Jim Douglas. He returned to the State Senate after the 2006 election and ran for Governor again in 2010. He unexpectedly came in second, behind Senate Pro Temp Peter Shumlin, who would go on to win the general election. Racine was made Human Services sec. under the Shumlin administration, but resigned after high-profile problems at the Department of Children and Families. At least three children died of child abuse while the department was working with the families.
Matt Dunne: He’s run for governor twice and for LG once. He has only once ever been the Democratic nominee, in 2006 where he was nominated for lieutenant governor and came much closer than expected to defeating incumbent GOP LG Brian Dubie. In 2010 he came in 4th out of 5 in the Democratic gubernatorial primary (which in fairness, was only 4 points behind the winner). In 2016 he sought the gubernatorial nomination again, losing to Sue Minter by 51-38. If he ever wants to be the nominee this is probably his only chance, he’s lost statewide so often there’s no reason for the party to stick with him for anything.
Sue Minter: The 2016 nominee might seek the nomination again, but lost against Republican LG Phil Scott in an open race by 8 points in 2016. The wise thing for her to do if she wants to continue growing in her political career is to wait for an open seat. A person can only lose statewide so often before they’re not considered strong material (see Racine, Doug and Dunne, Matt).
Leadership:
2016 saw an entire change in political leadership in Vermont. The Lieutenant Governor Phil Scott ran for and won the gubernatorial election, Senator David Zuckerman became LG, House Speaker Shap Smith ran for LG and lost, replaced by Mitzi Johnson of South Hero. In the race for Speaker, Johnson bested House Majority Leader, Sarah Copeland Hanzas. With her running for speaker, Jill Krowinski of Burlington became the House Majority Leader. In the Senate, Pro-Tempore John Campbell retired from the Senate, with Tim Ashe of Burlington replacing him. Pro-Temp wasn’t the only change in the Senate, as Majority Leader Philip Baruth resigned his leadership position, with Becca Balint of Windham now serving as Majority Leader. All of these candidates are potential candidates, but new to their respective positions.
Tim Ashe: Ashe has served as a Senator from Chittenden County since 2009. He’s almost 40 and certainly ambitious, he ran for Mayor of Burlington in 2012 and tied in the last round of the convention. Another round of voting was held a week later and Ashe lost to now Burlington Mayor Miro Weinberg. Ashe has always awkwardly straddled the line between the Democrats and the Progressives, but his ascension to Pro Temp suggests the wounds have healed. Pro Temps tend to go on to statewide office. While former Pro Temp John Cambell retired without reaching higher office, his predecessor Peter Shumlin became governor in 2011, the Pro Temp before that, Peter Welch, was elected to the US House in 2006 and the previous Pro Temp before Welch, Peter Shumlin (yes, the same Shumlin) was the 2002 Democratic nominee for LG.
Becca Balint: Balint was first elected in 2014, so she’s barely served a full term. When she first announced a run for the state senate in 2014 she received a handwritten postcard stating "I urge you to end your political ambitions and stay home with your children." If she ran, it would help address some of Vermont’s under-recognized issues with sexism. She’s written a column for the Brattleboro Reformer, served on the Brattleboro Review Board and directed Saltash Mountain Camp at Farm and Wilderness, a camp for teens. As a senator from Windham, she would be one of the few candidates from the southern part of the state, giving her an undiluted political base. Windham and Windsor are some of the most liberal parts of the state and their votes can be enough to overpower losses in the Burlington area (in the primary). Further, she is the first openly gay woman elected to the VT Senate.
Jill Krowinski: She has been in the House since 2012 serving Burlington and was elected Majority Leader in 2016. Outside of politics, she serves as VP of Education and Public Affairs at Planned Parenthood. Krowinski wouldn’t have much of a political base, Burlington and Chittenden County are already over-represented in potential candidates, nor has she served as Majority Leader long enough to have built up notoriety.
Mitzi Johnson: Johnson is a seasoned veteran of the legislature, having served since 2003, though only in the speaker position since January 2017. During her previous 14 years in the legislature, she never served in Leadership before but did build a reputation as a dealmaker, consensus builder, and mainstream Democrat. As a representative of South Hero, she would be one of few candidates from Grand Isle County, however, it’s not the most populous county, so it’s not saying much. Johnson, as a 46 year old, would be one of the younger candidates for governor, possessing experience, skill, but also youth, a rare combination.
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