Speaking about the House’s recently passed Obamacare repeal and replace bill (e.g., the American Health Care Act, or, Trumpcare), a constituent at a GOP Congressman’s town hall said, "You are mandating people on Medicaid accept dying." To which, the GOP Congressman replied, "Nobody dies because they don’t have access to health care." http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2017/may/08/raul-labrador/raul-labradors-claim-no-one-dies-lack-health-care-/ Of course, the constituent was correct.
A study of the early years of Romney Care in Massachusetts by Andrew Wilper and colleagues at the Harvard Medical School contains the most relevant analysis of the loss of coverage under the Affordable Care Act and expected mortality. http://www.ncpa.org/pdfs/2009_harvard_health_study.pdf Wilper and colleagues used the most advanced methods and complete data available. They found that coverage under the Massachusetts health plan was associated with a forty percent drop in mortality after adjusting for demographics, health status and life choices like smoking. This increased mortality means that for every 830 persons who lose health insurance in each year we can expect one to die.
The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that 22 million people each year will lose their health insurance when the Senate version of Trumpcare is fully implemented in 2025. https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/115th-congress-2017-2018/costestimate/52849-hr1628senate.pdf By simple math, an estimated 26,506 deaths will result in that year and each following year from Trumpcare’s repeal and replace bill. Using the CBO estimates of loss of insurance over the first ten years of its implementation, the Senate version of Trumpcare will result in 209,000 deaths. This is more than the total deaths in the Korean War, Vietnam War, Gulf War, Afganistan and Iraq conflicts combined. http://www.statisticbrain.com/u-s-war-death-statistics/
Here are the annual deaths in the House and Senate Trumpcare versions:
Expected Trumpcare Deaths
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During First Decade Based on CBO Estimates and Harvard Medical School Analysis
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|
|
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|
|
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House Version
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Senate Version
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Year
|
People Losing Insurance
|
Expected Deaths
|
People Losing Insurance
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Expected Deaths
|
|
|
|
|
|
2017
|
4,000,000
|
4,819
|
1,000,000
|
1,205
|
2018
|
14,000,000
|
16,867
|
15,000,000
|
18,072
|
2019
|
16,000,000
|
19,277
|
15,000,000
|
18,072
|
2020
|
21,000,000
|
25,301
|
19,000,000
|
22,892
|
2021
|
23,000,000
|
27,711
|
19,000,000
|
22,892
|
2022
|
23,000,000
|
27,711
|
20,000,000
|
24,096
|
2023
|
23,000,000
|
27,711
|
20,000,000
|
24,096
|
2024
|
23,000,000
|
27,711
|
21,000,000
|
25,301
|
2025
|
23,000,000
|
27,711
|
22,000,000
|
26,506
|
2026
|
23,000,000
|
27,711
|
22,000,000
|
26,506
|
|
|
|
|
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Total
|
|
232,530
|
|
209,639
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