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Under pressure from the White House, it looks like Mitch McConnell and his Senate leadership team are pushing for a Trumpcare vote this month, before the July 4th congressional recess. White House director of legislative affairs Marc Short told reporters that that vote is definitely happening before the August recess so that the decks will be cleared for tax "reform" after Labor Day. Popular vote loser Donald Trump will be meeting with House Speaker Paul Ryan and Senate Leader McConnell Tuesday afternoon to discuss his legislative priorities, including Trumpcare.
But that doesn't necessarily mean it's going to happen, or that the vote they force will pass.
Some Senate Republican aides and associates are already privately discussing how the GOP would craft its midterm campaign message if it fails to pass a health-care bill, suggesting they could tell voters they need to build a bigger majority to finally undo the Affordable Care Act, known as Obamacare, as they have long promised.
There is also rising pessimism among rank-and-file Republican senators about the prospect of reaching consensus on legislation to make good on a signature campaign promise, highlighting the steep climb they face to securing the 50 votes they need to pass a it.
"I still think in the end there's a huge reason why we have to get to 50 on this," said Senate Republican Conference Chairman John Thune (R-S.D.) on Monday. He added: "Obviously, we're going to have a vote one way or the other, but if we don't pass something and we go into '18, you know, it's on us to try and get this fixed."
Gee, with brilliant leadership like that, it’s no wonder they're stumbling their way through this. McConnell seems to be at the point of forcing this on his conference, publicly flirting with the idea of having the vote even though he knows it might fail. That puts more pressure on his Republicans to support whatever he comes up with—they either keep their promise to the base to do away with Obamacare or suffer the consequences.
It worked for Ryan in the House. What doesn't work the same as in the House is that McConnell can't have a vote until he has a CBO score showing that the bill saves at least $133 billion. So his senators will have to vote with the full knowledge of just how much they're destroying people's health care.