A new report identifies 12 "epicenters" worldwide where changing climate could spark conflict
The national security establishment needs to prepare for a series of global crises sparked by climate change, a group of experts wrote in a report released today.
The analysis by the Center for Climate and Security identifies 12 “epicenters” where climate change could stress global security, possibly igniting conflicts around the world.
American diplomats and military planners have already started grappling with some of these problems—but the links between them do not get enough attention, the experts said. And it is an open question whether the Trump administration confronts those challenges or tries to ignore them.
I think we all know the answer to that last question.
Here are the 12 epicenters:
1. Eroding Sovereignty: Climate change will make it harder for governments to provide basic necessities, increasing the likelihood of unrest.
2. Water Towers: Billions of people are dependent on “water towers” — mountains covered with snow and ice that melts, feeding streams and rivers below. As that water grows scarce, tensions will rise.
3. Atlantis 2.0: Low-lying islands like the Maldives may disappear altogether, creating a refugee crisis.
4. Dire Straits: Maritime trade routes will be stressed by the change in patterns of trade that climate change will create, as well as more directly. The Panama Canal, for example, uses fresh water to move ships through its locks (54 million gallons for each ship).
5. Nuclear & Climate: Climate change will increase nuclear risk.
6. Health Security: Climate change may increase global pandemics.
7. Coastal Megacities: The rapidly growing coastal cities of the world may be flooded by rising sea levels, destabilizing nations.
8. Water Weaponization: Terrorists are already using water as a weapon; climate change is likely to make it worse.
9. A Melting Arctic: Vanishing ice will make the Arctic more accessible, increasing the likelihood of conflict over its resources.
10. Fish and Conflict: A warming ocean will increase conflicts over fish stocks.
11. Coffee Conflict: Global trade networks that millions of people depend on will be disrupted.
12. Migration and Displacement: Climate change is a significant and growing driver of migration and displacement.
“The humanitarian effects of [climate change] are massive,” he said. “But what we’re saying is that those humanitarian consequences are likely to spill over into broader security problems that speaks to the heart of how the world organizes itself.”
The report is here:
Epicenters of Climate and Security: The New Geostrategic Landscape of the Anthropocene [134 page PDF]
And there’s an introductory video here: