A couple weeks ago I wrote a post about why Dean Heller’s stance against the Wealthcare bill had the potential to bring the whole bill down pretty quickly, and it did. Collins came out against the bill with a bunch of others once the CBO score was released, and those “moderates” along with the conservatives resisting the bill sunk it within a day of the CBO score being released.
Now there is pressure on Heller to support some new version of the bill, along with pressure for Cruz to bring along conservatives to his version of the bill, allowing for plans that gut the safeguards of the ACA.
It’s likely things will play out quickly early next week when the Senate reconvenes. I doubt Heller will be brought on board within a day or two for a new replacement draft (if at all — it would doom his re-election chances). Everyone hates Ted Cruz, and the looming government shutdown reminds everyone again of what a self-serving asshole he is. Murkowski and Collins actually spent time with their constituents over the July break, and are coming back more resolved than ever to oppose the replacement plan. We even have folks like Jerry Moran from Kansas (Jerry Moran!) opposed to the replacement. Rand Paul is still a firm no. Capito and Portman are nos. Hoeven is a no. It will be impossible for the Senate to get almost all of these folks to walk back their public statements against this deeply unpopular bill.
So, what’s left? Expect within 24-48 hours (by Wednesday or Thursday at the latest) for Republicans to abandon their attempts to repeal and replace the ACA. What will happen is a very quick, stealth attempt to vote for repeal of the ACA without a replacement, with the provision that the ACA will stay in place for two years until a replacement is developed. Senators who oppose the current replacement plan will be told to vote for the repeal, with a promise that the replacement will be all unicorns and rainbows, with a public, bipartisan process of developing it over the next year or two. Then of course no replacement will be developed, the Democrats will be blamed for obstructing the development of a replacement, and tens of millions will lose their healthcare anyway.
What can we do? We need to find every statement by every Republican senator who opposed repealing without a replacement. We need good data right away about how disruptive a repeal will be with no replacement in sight. We need to call Republican senators starting Monday letting them know a repeal without a replacement would be a disaster. Democratic senators need to use every tool they have to make it clear they will not work with Republicans if the ACA is fully repealed.
And look to Heller again. If he comes out next week with a statement that he could support a repeal without a replacement, because he’s willing to fight like Hell(er) over the next year to make sure it’s a great bipartisan bill, then we’re in big trouble.