A Washington Post/ABC poll released Monday found that Democrats have a twelve-point advantage in the generic ballot, and an even larger gap among "likely voters" (a bloc that’s often kinder to Republicans): "Among those most likely to vote, 54 percent support the Democratic candidate in their congressional district, compared to 40 percent for the Republican."
The groups fueling this advantage are women and independent voters, writes the Post:
The Post-ABC poll finds Democrats holding a 57 percent to 31 percent advantage among female voters, double the size of Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s margin in the 2016 election. Nonwhite women favor Democrats by a 53-point margin, somewhat smaller than Clinton’s 63-point advantage over Trump in 2016. But white women have moved sharply in Democrats’ direction, favoring them over Republicans by 12 points after supporting Trump by nine points in 2016 and Republican candidates by 14 points in the 2014 midterm election, according to network exit polls.
Comparing exit polls to a generic ballot isn’t perfect, but that’s still a hefty 26-point shift from voting for GOP candidates in 2014 to favoring Democratic ones in 2018. Also ...
… self-identified political independents favor Democrats by a 16-point margin, 50 percent to 34 percent. The swing group has been decisive in three consecutive midterm election waves, backing Republicans by 19 points in 2010 and 12 points in 2014, but supporting Democrats by 18 points in 2006 as they retook control of the House.
We got a long way to go until November, but polls and marches alike show people are still highly energized by their disgust for Donald Trump, among other things. And since he’s incapable of change, that base level of enthusiasm is likely to continue right on through the election.