Will Bunch/philly.com:
Trump, Saudis, money … and a murder. We need a new Congress to find out what really happened
In early 2017, as the world was still processing the geopolitical earthquake that had been the ascension of Donald Trump to the American presidency, a high-ranking GOP congressman — California's Ed Royce, who chairs the House Foreign Relations Committee — rose to speak on the House floor. Royce's words about U.S. relations with Saudi Arabia entered the Congressional Record but made barely a ripple, except with his apparent audience — key, shadowy players in the connected inner circles of the rising Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, known to all as MBS … and of Donald Trump.
Royce's obscure speech was celebrated in an email by Trump ally and fund-raiser Elliott Broidy — at the time, newly minted deputy finance chair of the Republican National Committee. Broidy had just maxed out in campaign contributions to the California Republican and boasted in his (later hacked) emails that not only had he influenced Royce to made a policy flip toward the Saudis and away from its rival neighbor, Qatar, but that he'd "caused" the congressman to mention a virtually unknown Saudi general in his address from the House floor.
The world, by and large, did not know anything about that Saudi — Major General Ahmed al-Assiri — in early 2017.
The election is in 15 days.
(They make up a fifth of the electorate.)
NY Times with a piece on Latino turn-out (if everywhere were like Las Vegas):
In Nevada, and especially in Clark County, which includes Las Vegas, unions have become powerful engines for turning out voters. Ms. Henry said S.E.I.U. members in the state had already knocked on the doors of 15,000 Hispanic and Asian voters, and the union brought a couple of hundred of its California members to Nevada by bus to participate in mobilization activities on Saturday, the first day of early voting in the state.
There may be no stronger grass-roots political force in Clark County, which is home to more than three-quarters of the state’s population, than Culinary Workers Union Local 226, known in the county simply as Culinary. The 57,000-member union grants scores of service workers monthslong leaves of absence from their jobs as cooks and cleaners to focus on political outreach. The union has thrown its weight behind Ms. Rosen.
Such a playbook, however, is difficult to replicate in other states.
And how is that going? Well, we are already voting in lots of places. Check with Jon Ralston:
10/21/18, 1 PM
A few nuggets:
—-Dems say they have a 14-point lead among all votes counted in this cohort: New voters, those who have not voted in last three federal elections. Let’s see if that keeps up.
—-Comparisons to 2016 are not apt, people. It’s 2014 or maybe 2010, as you can see in my initial post.
—-Forgot to post Washoe comparison: On first day in 2014: GOP crushed it, winning absentee and EV by 1,000 votes. 48-36 in early voting, nearly the flip of what happened Saturday.
—-Remember: This is just ONE DAY, which does not a trend make.
10/21/18, 9 AM
A one-day blue wave — aberration or harbinger?
It was a big day for the Democrats on Saturday, the first of 14 days of early voting, which generally makes up 60 percent of the vote.
Turnout in Clark County was near-presidential year levels, with 30,000 voters turning out and Democrats winning by about 4,500 votes: 14,735-10,210. That’s 48 percent to 33 percent, which means Democrats were 6 percent above their registration and Republicans were 4 percent above theirs.
So the Democrats, who need to build a firewall in Clark, have a 4,500-vote lead. In contrast, in 2014, that lead after the first day was nonexistent, signaling a red wave. There was no southern firewall in 2014, so the Republicans swept everything. Turnout also was a third of what it was this year. 2018 is not 2014.
Perhaps the even bigger news was in Washoe County, where Republicans have a 2 percent registration edge, but the Democrats won 49-34: 3,409-2,365. That never happens in Washoe.
How about FL? Check with Steve Schale (close race predicted):
Today’s GOP advantage: 50,399 (+5.75%)
Yesterday GOP advantage: 46,104 (+5.83%)
Thursday GOP advantage: 43,098 (+6.31%)
Wednesday morning GOP advantage: 40,179 votes (+7.28%).
And for comparison purposes, 18 days out in 2014, the election looked like this:
Total ballots returned (2014): 1,186,083
Total Republican advantage: 136,180 (+11.5%)
Assuming turnout at 7,000,000 voters, roughly 12.4% of the potential total turnout is in.
To give some comparison: nearly 20% of the total final turnout had voted in 2014 before early voting started. In 2016, it was closer to 13%.
...
Just to stress one point – this time just for my Democratic friends: There are 113,991 more Democratic ballots sitting on kitchen tables or in piles by the front door than there are Republican ballots. Come on people, I know we are all bummed about the start of the Jaguars season, but let’s get those things back in.
NC? It’s Dr. Michael Bitzer:
Registered Democrats have an overall higher turnout rate than registered Republicans and unaffiliated voters, but it is still very early in the process….
Again, only one third of ballots cast in 2016 was on Election Day, while the partisan differences in both absentee by mail and absentee in person continued. However, so far in 2018, the partisan differences lean to registered Democrats in both absentee by mail and absentee in person. It will be key to see if this trend continues as mail ballots are returned.
See Bloomberg:
Early Voting Is Surging, and That Could Help Democrats
The numbers are up – way up
Early voting is under way or about to start in several states, and so far, turnout is up -- way up.
That turnout could benefit Democrats, who are vying to take the House and have long-shot hope of flipping the Senate. The party has seen a surge in special elections throughout this year and last, and could see their highest level of voter turnout for a midterm election in at least a decade, according to an analysis by the New York Times.
…
In Indiana and Tennessee, states with competitive Senate races, and Minnesota, a state with four competitive House races that could help determine if Democrats are able to flip the chamber, turnout is surging. On Wednesday, the first day of early voting in Tennessee, more than 120,000 people voted, which is nearly four times the number of people that voted on the first day of early voting in 2014 midterm, according to the Tennessean. That state is home to a tight race between former Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen and Republican Representative Marsha Blackburn. Republicans hope to hold onto that seat as part of a firewall to protect their Senate majority.
In Hamilton County, Indiana, just north of Indianapolis, voters have cast ballots at a rate 10 times higher than four years ago and almost as high as during 2016 election, the Indianapolis Star reported.
Georgia, New Mexico and Virginia have also seen a surge in early voting, according to reports, and Kansas has seen an uptick in mail-in ballot requests. Early voting starts Saturday in Nevada, where Democrats have one of their best shots at picking up a Senate seat, and Monday in Texas, home to another important Senate contest.
“At this point, I’d place more credence on polls with higher projected turnout, than those that model turnout on a 2014 electorate,” Michael McDonald, an associate professor at the University of Florida specializing in elections, wrote on Twitter.
Evan Siegfried, GOP strategist:
The Hill with an energy story worth following:
The Trump administration has been plotting for many months to seize power over the electrical generation sector by executive order, and despite widespread opposition and infighting that set the effort back this week, analysts say President Trump is personally invested in the idea, and that he and Energy Secretary Perry remain committed to ordering a bailout of failing coal and nuclear plants.
It wouldn’t exactly nationalize the industry or impose martial law. But the administration has invoked false national security claims and inappropriate “emergency” powers to claim the right to upend the market and force ratepayers and taxpayers to subsidize nuclear and coal plants against their will. It would commandeer their money to prop up aging, unsafe, uncompetitive plants that should, and otherwise would, shut down.
ICYMI Jess Zimmerman has an explainer on Democratic anger and reaction from the media:
Why Can’t Democrats Get Angry?
I think it’s because our misogynistic society has pushed them into the same corner women have been forced into. But there’s a way out.
But we are not in a functioning society right now. Christine Blasey Ford certainly showed that she could get her point across without stooping to Kavanaugh-level hysterics, and it probably wouldn’t have gone better for her if she’d pitched a tantrum; that was the right call. But the reason women are being so widely called to access their anger right now is that politeness has become a room we’re banished to. The same applies to Democrats in Congress and anyone looking to replace our failed government in the future; they may have had no good option but to meet pigheadedness with the same. In this case, then, the path forward for a feminized group has already been laid out by the third wave: Learn to be a bitch. Be angry, even if you aren’t allowed. Be ruder than you think you can be (without losing your principles). If they say feelings don’t matter, turn your feelings into a weapon. Never shut up. Never stand down. This is not ideal; it is functionally a commitment to escalation, when in fact everyone should take a damn seat. But it’s one of the only options available when there are two rigidly outlined groups, and one of them has written the rules so that the rules don’t apply to them.
Beyond that, it’s worth considering that our commitment to binaries is outdated in every aspect of our lives. Both the gender binary and the two-party system are susceptible to being layered on top of other opposed pairs: winner and loser, master and servant, loud and quiet, good and bad. Perhaps it’s time to learn to count to three.