On behalf of the Argus Leader and KELO TV, Mason-Dixon is out with the first independent poll of the race for governor of South Dakota, and they show a 45-45 tie between Democrat Billie Sutton and Republican Kristi Noem. The only other polls we've seen here at all were a pair of Sutton internals that showed him going from a 46-42 deficit in late July to a 45-42 lead in late September. Noem hasn't released better numbers, and she's even acknowledged that she didn't anticipate how difficult the general election would be.
Republicans have won every election for South Dakota's governorship stretching back to 1978—the longest such streak in the nation—but Democrats have a much stronger candidate than usual in Sutton, the state Senate minority leader. Sutton has run ads promoting his compelling background: He's a former rodeo star—in a state that loves the sport—who was left paralyzed from the waist down after a rodeo accident a decade ago.
Noem, who has represented the entire state in the House since the 2010 election, doesn't lack for name recognition, but this poll indicates she's considerably less well-liked than her Democratic rival. Mason-Dixon gives Sutton a 50-24 favorable rating, while Noem has a 44-35 score. Noem began running ads last month arguing that Sutton was too close to national Democrats, but this survey indicates that line of attack wasn't enough to put this contest away. Sutton still needs a lot to go right in order to make history in this very red state, but this very much looks like the kind of competitive gubernatorial race that South Dakota hasn't seen in decades.