Analysis from Politico paints a wonderfully grim picture for Republican control of the House in 2019: "A total of 68 seats currently held by Republicans are firmly in play—rated as "Lean Republican" or worse for the GOP—presenting a stark contrast to the Democratic side, where only a half-dozen Democratic seats are in similar jeopardy."
Recognizing the reality reflected in the CNN poll showing no great surge in Republican voter enthusiasm, Politico's Steven Shepard notes that the "jolt" from the "searing fight" over Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation is just temporary, and Democratic gains have been cemented since Labor Day. They hold a 13 percent advantage in the generic ballot (polled after the Kavanaugh vote), and a pretty certain hold on 209 seats. They will need to gain just 9 in order to control the House. In order to avoid losing those seats, Republicans would have to sweep all the close races and a "significant change in the political environment." It would take a hell of an October surprise to erase that 13 point ballot advantage of the Democrats'.
Oh, and yeah, there's this part. "Rep. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said last week that 60 House Democratic candidates will report raising more than $1 million from July through September—a staggering number—with 30 raising more than $2 million." That's a record-breaking performance, that is. Of course, "Republicans, meanwhile, are relying on deep-pocketed outside groups to bridge the gap." Read: Koch brothers' network.
How bad is it for Republicans? "In CNN's latest polling, Democrats top Republicans among white female likely voters with college degrees by a 67% to 31% margin." White women, people. Among all women, Democrats hold a similar margin; "63% of women say they'll vote for the Democrat and only a third say they'll vote for the Republican."
At this point, it's just a matter of keeping the momentum going for Democrats for the next four weeks. That means fundraising and GOTV.
Please give $1 today to each of these fantastic Democrats fighting to win back the House!