With 11,000 absentee ballots left to be counted in Congressional district NY-27, the gap is closing between indicted Republican incumbent Chris Collins, and Democratic challenger Nate McMurray. According to an article in today’s Buffalo News,
On Wednesday ... McMurray said his vote count is “performing significantly higher” than on election night in four counties reporting so far — Monroe, Wyoming, half of Genesee and about a quarter of Ontario.
Compared to election night returns, McMurray said the count of absentee and other outstanding ballots has his share 9 percent higher in Ontario, 13 percent higher in Wyoming, 14 percent higher in Monroe and 15 percent higher in Genesee.
McMurray maintains that he at no point conceded the election, and, when it became clear in the small hours of November 7th that he was within one percentage point of Collins, immediately requested a recount.
Collins spokesd**k Christopher M. Grant downplayed the potential of any uncounted ballot to, um, change the number of ballots counted, adding that McMurray “struggles with basic math” and “hasn’t yet come to terms with the fact that this campaign is over." According to his totally unbiased analysis,
Tuesday's counts stemmed from the most Democratic areas of the district, including the cities of Batavia and Canandaigua, as well as Monroe County, where more Democratic absentee ballots than Republican ones were requested … “We still have to count the most Republican areas in Genesee, Ontario, Orleans, Niagara where Collins won, and Erie. Yesterday was probably his best day.”
Perhaps that’s a bit of wishful thinking on Grant’s part. Batavia, Canandaigua, and surrounding areas have hardly been Democratic strongholds historically. The fact that “more absentee ballots than Republican ones” were requested this past election cycle may point to a shift left. Although Genesee, Ontario, Orleans, and parts of Niagara counties may vote Republican, Niagara County contains some spillover from Niagara Falls, the second largest city in the district and, if not reliably Democratic, almost certainly not the Republican stronghold Grant suggests it is.
And then there’s Buffalo, largest city in Western New York and the county of Erie. While NY-26 overlaps most of the city proper and some of the more populous suburbs, there may be enough exurb drift from Williamsville and Cheektowaga into places like Orchard Park and East Aurora — just the kind of predominantly white suburbs that repudiated Trumpism in other midterm races — to shift 27 blue. Jeremy J. Zellner, Commissioner of the Erie County Board of Elections, pointed out that
the largest number of outstanding ballots in the district stem from Erie and are due at the Board of Elections on Monday … “Nothing will be final until Erie is in,” he said.
McMurray needs 64 percent of the 11,000 absentee ballots (9,100 remained to be counted as of late this afternoon). The recount is expected to continue until November 20th. He can still pull this out, folks! Donate here to support Nate’s recount effort.
Meanwhile, in yet another demonstration of bros-before-votes love, Republicans tried to bar Nate from participating in any orientation activities in preparation for next week’s results:
Rep. Gregg Harper, the Mississippi Republican who chairs the House Administration Committee, barred McMurray from orientation events and a group picture of incoming lawmakers on Wednesday, McMurray told the New York Post.
Elaborating on what happened in a statement, McMurray blamed Collins for shutting him out of the orientation activities.
Democrats on the House Administration Committee have allowed McMurray to attend their party-only orientation events and have offered to travel to Western New York to help him if he wins.
Welp, I’m sure the satisfaction of having kept Nate out of the group photo will bring Collins some comfort when he’s staring at the Attica walls.
C’mon, Nate! It’s a blue wave, and the surf’s still up.
Addendum, further to Dave G’s comment below: Neither Erie nor Niagara County Board of Elections have published any numbers on results so far. Wyoming County BOE has McMurry at 4,608 and Collins at 8,281 with 50% reporting, Genesee County BOE has McMurry at 8,705 and Collins at 11,471, no percent of returns specified, Ontario County BOE has McMurry at 14,117 and Collins at 11,918 with 100% reporting, and Monroe County BOE with McMurray at 6,065 and Collins at 5,826. These are all “unofficial” counts, according to the BOE websites.