Republicans reportedly are anxious about Tuesday’s special election for the Senate in Mississippi, and the New York Times writes that a private GOP poll from last week found Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith leading Democrat Mike Espy by just 5 points. This story follows a Washington Post report saying that Republican internals have found that the footage of Hyde-Smith expressing her eagerness to witness a public lynching has done her damage, so much so that her lead over Democrat Mike Espy “has narrowed significantly in recent days.”
However, we still don’t have any public polls here. It’s also worth noting that Team Red seems to have settled into a pattern of lowering expectations ahead of closely watched special elections: If they win, they can just go back to crowing that Trump is awesome and everything is going great; if they lose, they can try to put all the blame on their supposedly awful candidate (without ever acknowledging that their party produces awful candidates with regularity). It's therefore always possible that Republicans are going with their instincts and doing the same thing we’ve seen time and again, even in contests they’ve ended up winning.
Still, if Republicans actually are worried that Hyde-Smith’s apparent nostalgia for Mississippi’s ugly Jim Crow-era past is alienating voters in this red state, they’ve just got another reason to be unhappy. On Monday, a 2014 Facebook post surfaced of Hyde-Smith visiting the Jefferson Davis Home and Presidential Library featuring photos of her sporting a Confederate soldier's hat and a Civil War-era rifle, with the caption, “Mississippi history at its best!” At least one prominent company has decided that they don’t want to be associated with Hyde-Smith after all of this: On Tuesday, Walmart announced it was withdrawing its support and requesting a refund for the $2,000 donation its PAC had made on Sunday.
Hyde-Smith could have used the money, since Espy narrowly outraised her $370,000 to $362,000 since the runoff began on Nov. 6. However, Hyde-Smith is getting some new help from the Trump-inspired super PAC America First Action, which has launched a $280,000 buy that includes TV, radio, and digital ads as well as mailers. Both the NRSC and Senate Leadership Fund have also each spent over $1 million to save Hyde-Smith, while the Senate Majority PAC has put in $490,000 to boost Espy.