We will not know the full consequences of the 2018 election cycle for years to come. Personally, I see last night as a case of harm mitigation. We likely did what we needed to do to staunch the bleeding by winning back the House, and some key gubernatorial races. However, we fell short in the Senate — albeit with a challenging map. And voter suppression and GOP shenanigans likely limited Dem gains in two key Governor’s races. We may have stopped the bleeding, but we have not yet reversed Trump’s and the GOP noxious, hateful, repugnant and deadly tide.
Longer-term it looks like we have made significant inroads in state races. Almost all the key ballot measures related to redistricting, voter re-enfranchisement, and a host of others went our way. The Dems will likely be better positioned for the next redistricting cycle than we were in 2010.
The 9% point national wave is also good news. However, it is clear that we still have a long ways to go before we can take pride the direction the country is heading. It is not good enough to staunch the bleeding, we must reverse the tide and create a better world.
How do we do this?
One lesson, I believe, is that we need to look at Nevada and the turnout machine that Reid has built in the state and draw some lessons about how to actually engage and mobilize voters. I’m not sure if his model can be replicated everywhere, but I suspect his state is not the only one where the approach is applicable.
In Texas last night, Beto and his band of volunteers and organizers did incredible work as well to staunch the tide, and potentially move Texas closer to the purple category that prognosticators have talked about for years.
One area where we fell short, however, was in the operation of the DNC versus the RNC. The RNC has raised over $227 million — the DNC just a shade over $116 million. This is not good enough. In terms of the next cycle, in particular, we need to do much better.
I’m sure there will be plenty of good post-mortems of the Beto campaign, but among the relevant lessons are:
1. You can raise a ton of money without relying on corporate PACs if you have a compelling message and credible messenger. Beto more than demonstrated his bonafides in this cycle, shattering small donor and fundraising records. He took the leap of faith, and that move paid off.
The GOP will always have the edge in corporate fundraising. Rather than splitting it 30-70 with them, we should get off it altogether and using this as a means to build the party around the kind of donor base that fueled Beto’s campaign. Donors are more willing to give when they know their contributions won’t be drowned out by corporate money and corporate donor priorities.
2. If you want to overperform polls and build a long-term power base, it helps if you are building using a Big Organizing Model. With Howard Dean as DNC Chair we started to do some of this. Veterans of his 2004 campaign have applied the lessons since then to great effect. Beto’s campaign is another demonstration of the benefits of this approach. e.g. the Plan to Win, which saw the campaign knock on over 2.8 million doors, and make 20 million calls is something that could be very useful.
All this leads me to the not so radical idea, that we should try to draft Beto to be the next DNC Chair. Of course, Beto may have higher political ambitions, or he may want to take a break from electoral politics for a while. However, the DNC Chair role is undervalued, and it will be critically important in 2020.
Beto would be an ideal choice as well, because he is a capable bridge between the party activists and the insiders. In the 2020 election cycle, in what could be a 20 candidate field, it is critical to have someone in the position who can serve as a credible bridge within the party between the elected leadership and the grass roots volunteers and donors. We also need someone who has a credible vision for inspiring and mobilizing voters — not just for one election, but as part of a longer term political operation.
Beto is able to appeal to small donors without scaring off the big ones. As a party spokesman too, he is articulate and persuasive. He is able to convey optimism and a hopeful vision credibly.
In terms of fundraising, philosophy, and his skills as a communicator, Beto could have a profound and positive impact on our efforts to rebuild the party — more so perhaps than in any other position. In politics we tend to focus a lot on individuals and especially on the highest profile offices. However, national success will come from having key people in undervalued and overlooked positions like the DNC Chair.