Senator Diane Feinstein maintained her large lead over progressive rival Kevin de Leon in the most recent Public Policy Institute of California poll. Feinstein leads de Leon 42% to 16%, and leads de Leon with men 35% to 21%, with women 48% to 13%, and importantly has the support of 66% of Democrats. The full PPIC poll can be found here (31 page PDF)
www.ppic.org/...
This diary is a follow up to two previous diaries I have written on the California 2018 Senate race. In the first diary I review the state’s unusual “jungle” primary where all primary contestants run together, Democrats, Republicans and Independents, and the top two meet in the general election. It’s a system intentionally designed to benefit moderates, and that is a big advantage to Feinstein. If there was a traditional Democratic Party only primary it is possible a more progressive Democrat could win, but that’s not how the system works in CA. You can find that first diary here:
www.dailykos.com/…
The second diary shows the results of early polls after progressive California Senate President Pro Tempore Kevin de Leon formally entered the race to challenge the 84 year old, four term, incumbent Senator and Feinstein also announced that she was running for re-election. You can find that diary here:
www.dailykos.com/...
At this point de Leon continues to face serious challenges with name recognition and fund raising, with Feinstein holding a 10:1 advantage of cash on hand, including a $5 million personal loan she has made to her campaign. The challenge for de Leon is that while he held a very senior post in the CA legislature he is not well known outside of his district in Los Angeles and CA is a difficult and expensive state if you are trying to build name recognition. CA is too large for retail campaigning to have much impact and the four separate media markets Los Angeles and Orange County, San Diego, San Francisco, Oakland and San Jose, and Sacramento make advertising very expensive.
It appears nearly certain that Feinstein and de Leon will win the “top two” primary and face off in the November general election so de Leon has time to improve his name recognition and see if his message can resonate. He will need a lot of help from the grassroots and small donors to be competitive with Senator Feinstein, a moderate with support from Democratic, Republican and Independent voters, and the ability to self fund an unlimited war chest, if needed.