Patriot Majority USA, a Democratic group that has released several batches of polling of House races so far this cycle, has put out another dozen polls of GOP-held districts from PPP.
District |
Republican |
%age |
Democrat |
%age |
GOP
Margin |
Trump
Margin |
AR-02 |
French Hill |
47 |
Clarke Tucker |
42 |
5 |
11 |
FL-16 |
Vern Buchanan |
49 |
David Shapiro |
37 |
12 |
11 |
IL-12 |
Mike Bost |
44 |
Brendan Kelly |
39 |
5 |
15 |
IL-13 |
Rodney Davis |
45 |
Betsy Londrigan |
42 |
3 |
6 |
IL-14 |
Randy Hultgren |
45 |
Lauren Underwood |
41 |
4 |
4 |
MI-08 |
Mike Bishop |
46 |
Elissa Slotkin |
41 |
5 |
7 |
NC-09 |
Robert Pittenger |
42 |
Dan McCready |
37 |
5 |
12 |
NC-13 |
Tedd Budd |
43 |
Kathy Manning |
40 |
3 |
9 |
NJ-03 |
Tom MacArthur |
42 |
Andy Kim |
41 |
1 |
6 |
OH-01 |
Steve Chabot |
43 |
Aftab Pureval |
42 |
1 |
7 |
VA-02 |
Scott Taylor |
48 |
Elaine Luria |
42 |
6 |
3 |
WA-05 |
Cathy McMorris Rodgers |
48 |
Lisa Brown |
45 |
3 |
13 |
There are two important things to note here. First, all of these districts feature Republican incumbents seeking re-election—no open seats. The second is that Donald Trump carried all of these districts; you can see his margin of victory in the final column. As such, these seats are more difficult turf, but while Democrats probably need to win some districts like these to take back the House, they by no means need to win them all.
And while these Republican members of Congress all lead their opponents, in almost every case, they’re doing so by a smaller margin than Trump’s. That’s reflective of what we’ve seen in the majority of special elections around the country this cycle: Democrats are running ahead of the presidential margins in their districts. Of course, they’ll have to do a bit better still in these seats in order to win, but there are many months of campaigning yet to come.