The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● Primaries: Idaho, Nebraska, Oregon, and Pennsylvania held their federal and state primaries on Tuesday, and we’ll cover the outcomes in a future Digest. You can find the results here.
● CT-Gov: On Tuesday, two of the leading Democratic candidates for governor struck a deal to join forces, with former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz dropping her own bid and agreeing to become businessman Ned Lamont's running mate. Between Lamont's personal wealth and growing list of endorsements, plus Bysiewicz's position as the only woman in the race (EMILY's List had previously endorsed her), this is now the ticket to beat at this weekend's Democratic convention.
Campaign Action
But there are no guarantees. For one, the positions of governor and lieutenant governor are nominated separately, and while Lamont is the heavy favorite to win the party's endorsement (and thus a spot on the August primary ballot), the same may not be true of Bysiewicz. Two other Democrats have said they're considering bids for lieutenant governor: labor organizer Eva Bermudez Zimmerman and state Sen. Gary Winfield. As Winfield notes, the Lamont-Bysiewicz team is all-white, whereas Winfield is black and Bermudez Zimmerman is Latina. If convention-goers are interested in a more diverse ticket, that could spell trouble for Bysiewicz.
And the convention is not the final word. Anyone who secures the support of 15 percent of delegates gets placed on the primary ballot, so it's possible that multiple contenders could clear that threshold in both races. Yet even if that doesn't happen, two other Democrats who are seeking the governorship, Bridgeport Mayor Joe Ganim and businessman Guy Smith, are collecting petitions to run in the primary regardless of what goes down this weekend. (A fourth candidate, former state Veterans Affairs chief Sean Connolly, is only trying his hand at the convention.)
Still, even in a primary, Lamont would still be the frontrunner—though that was also true the last time he ran for governor. In 2010, every poll of the Democratic primary showed Lamont ahead, but he nevertheless lost decisively in an upset to Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy, who's now leaving office after two terms as governor. But back then, it was Malloy who earned the party endorsement, whereas now Lamont is the one with widespread support among insiders. Whether that's enough to ensure he gets his new choice of running mate, we'll soon see.
Senate
● FL-Sen: While a Republican super PAC had previously started attacking Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson on the airwaves, GOP Gov. Rick Scott is now going negative on his opponent for the first time. Scott's dropped a new TV ad that features a bunch of reg'lar folks complaining that the famously moderate Nelson is a robotic "party-line voter" in Congress. Of course, they're anything but: The Scott campaign refused to provide contact information for the people in the ad to the Tampa Bay Times, but Florida Politics identifies one of them as a Republican activist from Orlando.
And in a sign of how rote Republican ads have become, another speaker complains, "I think Nancy Pelosi is a huge influence on the Democratic Party and Bill Nelson." So now they're using Pelosi—whom we believe serves in the House—as a bludgeon in a Senate race? Well, it may very well work. In fact, Scott undoubtedly has six figures' worth of polling data and focus group research showing it's an effective line. But is this the best he's got?
● MT-Sen: The radical anti-tax Club for Growth is up with what they say is a $600,000 buy aimed at former state Judge Russ Fagg, who is competing against the Club-backed state Auditor Matt Rosendale in the June 5 GOP primary.
The Club's spot argues that Fagg sentenced a man named Matthew Green who had "assaulted a child, choked his wife, and came at her with a knife" to just five years in jail instead of the maximum of 50 years. The commercial ends by quoting Green's wife saying her children watched him beat her up for 45 minutes before the narrator declares that Fagg is "tough. On victims."
Fagg has been running ads portraying himself as tough on crime and pledging to support "the death penalty for illegal aliens who rape and murder," and the Club's spot is their attempt to paint him in a very different light.
Gubernatorial
● CO-Gov: With a little more than a month to go before the primary, state Treasurer and GOP frontrunner Walker Stapleton is up with what Colorado Politics reports is an opening TV buy for $700,000. Stapleton tells the audience that he stopped "the largest tax increase in state history" and successfully stopped single-payer healthcare before saying he was the "only treasurer in the country with the courage to support Donald Trump's tax cuts" and pledges "to end these dangerous sanctuary city policies."
While the primary isn't until June 26, campaigns can't wait that long to get their message out. This election will be entirely vote-by-mail, and since ballots will start being mailed to voters on June 4, candidates will want to make their moves before too many votes have been cast. Until now, Stapleton and his allies hadn't spent much money on TV. According to the Colorado Independent, the Republican who spent by far the most on ads was former state Rep. Victor Mitchell, who deployed $948,000; the pro-Stapleton group better Colorado Now was a distant second with just $96,000.
Things have been considerably more expensive on the Democratic side so far. Rep. Jared Polis, who has already self-funded $6 million, spent $2.67 million on TV ads during the first four months of 2018. Behind him was Frontier Fairness, a super PAC backing former state Sen. Mike Johnston, which dropped just over $1 million. Johnston himself only spent $11,000 during this time, but he entered May with the largest war chest on the Democratic side.
Teachers for Kennedy, which backs former state Treasurer Cary Kennedy, spent $661,000, while Kennedy's campaign dropped another $283,000. Lt. Gov. Donna Lynne spent about $200,000, but she doesn't have a major outside group spending on her behalf. Polling has been very limited here, so we don't have a good sense for how much all this spending has or has not moved voters.
● GA-Gov: The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has given us the rundown on TV and radio ad spending ahead of next Tuesday's gubernatorial primary, and they report that the campaigns and their allies have spent roughly $12.7 million so far. On the GOP side, Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle has unsurprisingly led the way, having disbursed $4.3 million on his own ads and benefiting from $1 million from a group called Citizens for Georgia's Future. That's more than his four rivals combined: Secretary of State Brian Kemp spent $1.5 million while former state Sen. Hunter Hill and tech executive Clay Tippins both laid out $1 million; state Sen. Michael Williams didn't break into the seven figures.
Team Blue's primary isn't quite as crowded, but the two candidates are taking notably different approaches. Former state Rep. Stacey Evans has spent $1.3 million on ads, while former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams devoted just $500,000 to ads, instead pumping more of her own resources into field organizing and turnout. However, BlackPAC, PowerPAC, and EMILY's List have combined to spend $2 million on ads supporting Abrams, meaning her message hasn't necessarily been absent from the airwaves.
● MD-Gov: Former NAACP president Ben Jealous has launched his first TV ad ahead of the June 26 Democratic primary, which his campaign said is a six-figure buy in the Baltimore area. The minute-long spot introduces Jealous and highlights his Maryland roots as the son of interracial parents. It touts his work leading the NAACP and organizing for civil rights, praising him for fighting to end the death penalty and pushing the legislature to pass marriage equality and the state Dream Act. Jealous appears on-screen to call for better teacher pay, an end to mass incarceration and police brutality, clean energy, and Medicare for all. He promises he'll stand up to Trump if elected.
● MO-Gov: In a shocking development on Monday evening, St. Louis Circuit Attorney Kim Gardner dismissed a felony invasion of privacy charge against GOP Gov. Eric Greitens after the judge presiding over the case ruled that Greitens' attorneys could call Gardner herself as a witness. That, said Gardner's office, made it impossible for them to proceed, since Gardner could not reasonably serve as both prosecutor and witness.
At issue was a claim by defense attorneys that a former investigator for the prosecution had committed perjury, and that Gardner was the only potential witness who could support their arguments. Gardner's team called the decision to let her testify "unprecedented," and a former federal prosecutor unconnected to the case opined, "I've never seen anything like it."
Greitens, of course, praised the developments as a "great victory," saying that prosecutors had "dropped the false charges against me." But the case is by no means over: Gardner's office has said it will refile the charges and has asked the court to appoint a special prosecutor.
And in any event, Republican legislative leaders are entirely unfazed. Lawmakers had already agreed to call a special session to weigh impeachment beginning on Friday evening (immediately after the conclusion of their regular session), and they say those plans are unchanged. In fact, the speaker of the state House noted that with his trial no longer looming, Greitens would be free to testify before the legislature. Might not be such a great victory after all.
● MI-Gov: State Attorney General Bill Schuette is going up with a new TV ad attacking Lt. Gov. Brian Calley in the GOP primary, which Schuette is running on broadcast in Grand Rapids and on Fox News statewide. The spot hammers Calley for not standing by Trump during the 2016 presidential campaign, noting that Trump has endorsed Schuette, as have Michigan Right to Life and the Chamber of Commerce.
● TN-Gov: Former Nashville Mayor Karl Dean is up with his first TV spot ahead of the early August Democratic primary, and his campaign says they plan to spend $150,000 a week over the summer. Dean narrates the ad and declares, "Through the great recession we were able to keep Nashville rising by remembering that everything is connected," explaining that, "Better schools and safer neighborhoods help attract companies and thousands of jobs." Dean goes on to say he cut spending in order to spend more on schools and police.
● WI-Gov: After less than a month in the race, businessman and liberal radio host Mike Crute announced on Monday that he was dropping out of the August Democratic primary.
House
● CA-48, CA-49, CA-39: As they previously had in California's 39th District, the DCCC is getting involved in the 48th and 49th Districts as well, running TV and radio ads to make sure Democrats don't get locked out of next month's top-two primary. And as before, the committee is targeting Republicans rather than taking sides among the Democratic candidates.
In the 48th, located along the Orange County coast in Southern California, the D-Trip goes after former county GOP chair Scott Baugh, saying he was accused of credit card fraud and was "charged with four felonies in connection with an investigation into an election-rigging scheme." Unmentioned, of course, is that those charges were ultimately dropped, though the ad notes that Baugh did have to pay almost $48,000 in fines to settle the matter. According to The Hill, the DCCC is spending $407,000 to air this spot, with another $169,000 on radio.
Meanwhile, in the 49th, which is based in the San Diego suburbs, the committee is attacking Assemblyman Rocky Chavez, accusing him of breaking his promises to "never raise taxes" and "oppose wasteful spending." The Hill says that there's $524,000 behind this ad.
In both districts, the D-Trip is trying to drive right-leaning voters away from their targeted candidates—the intended audience for their messaging about taxes and spending is particularly obvious in the 49th. In the 48th, the task at hand is relatively straightforward: to encourage Republican voters to either back GOP Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, who's all but guaranteed to move on to the general election, or stay at home altogether.
But the 49th is a lot trickier, because there are two other credible Republican contenders, state Board of Equalization member Diane Harkey and San Diego County Supervisor Kristin Gaspar. Smooshing Chavez, therefore, could elevate both Harkey and Gaspar, and with polls showing the entire field jammed close together, it's still possible these two could advance to November even if Chavez crumples. We could therefore see attack ads directed against a second GOP candidate soon, though the DCCC might simply have concluded that Gaspar, who's always been third among the three Republicans in surveys, isn't a major threat.
The DCCC is also getting some help in avoiding top-two debacles from a pair of major Democratic super PACs, House Majority PAC and Priorities USA. The two groups are together spending a total of $270,000 on digital ads in the 48th and 49th (likewise taking aim at Baugh and Chavez), as well as the 39th, based in the inland portion of Orange County around Fullerton. There, the two PACs are attacking former state Senate Minority Leader Bob Huff and Orange County Supervisor Shawn Nelson, just as the DCCC began doing last week. (According to Politico, the D-Trip is spending $722,000 in the 39th, though The Hill reports a much smaller figure, $234,000.)
And, oddly enough, the DCCC is also getting some help from a Republican dark money outfit—though shhh, don't tell them that! The American Future Fund, which used to be part of the Koch orbit but now operates as a hired gun for other groups that also don't disclose their donors, is spending about $150,000 apiece on digital ads and mailers in support of both Harkey in the 49th and Assemblywoman Young Kim in the 39th, the Republican most likely to advance there (and therefore the one Democrats have so fair laid off of in that race).
Thanks to the top-two primary system, each of these races presents a complicated puzzle with many moving parts, and with three weeks left until the election, these various pieces are likely to shift around some more. But as we get nearer to primary day, the puzzle will start to get locked in place because mail-in ballots, which are used by a sizable majority of California voters, were sent out last week. Every passing day, therefore, sees fewer and fewer voters who haven't yet cast ballots, which is why all of these outside organizations are acting now.
● CT-05: Democrats held their convention here on Monday (the GOP held theirs a few days before), and former Simsbury First Selectman Mary Glassman narrowly beat teacher Jahana Hayes to win the party endorsement. Hayes, who was named 2016's national teacher of the year and had support from Sen. Chris Murphy, took more than enough support from delegates to make the August primary ballot, and she's continuing with her campaign.
New Britain Alderman Manny Sanchez won 17 percent of the vote on the first convention ballot, just over the 15 percent he needed to qualify for the primary, but he said he was unsure if he would stay in. Rabbi Shaul Praver earned just a single vote, and it's unclear if he'll try to collect signatures to continue his campaign.
A number of Democrats expressed interest in seeking this 50-46 Clinton seat after Rep. Elizabeth Esty announced she would retire after her inadequate handling of an abusive aide, but only a few ended up competing at the convention. The filing deadline is June 12, and any candidates who didn't earn a place on the ballot at the convention but still want to run need to turn in petitions from at least 2 percent of the district's registered party members.
It's unclear if any credible candidate from either party will go this route. Two Democrats who had discussed running, former state Comptroller Bill Curry and state Rep. Michelle Cook, each said no in recent days, and we haven't heard any other noteworthy candidates express interest.
● MD-06: Del. Aruna Miller has begun airing her first TV ads (here and here) ahead of next month's Democratic primary. Both spots introduce her immigrant background, highlight her many progressive accomplishments in the legislature, and note how she'll stand up to Trump.
● NJ-11: Businesswoman Tamara Harris, who is the clear underdog against former federal prosecutor Mikie Sherrill in the June 5 Democratic primary, is up with a negative TV ad against Sherrill.
The narrator declares that Sherrill "took 20 grand from corporate lawyers, whose firm guided Toys "R" Us into bankruptcy," adding that it costs thousands of jobs while the Toys "R" Us executives made millions in bonuses. She then says Harris refuses corporate PAC money. Harris, who has self-funded a little more than half of her campaign, had $204,000 in the bank at the end of March to Sherrill's $1.66 million.
● NM-02: State Rep. Yvette Herrell is up with her first TV spot ahead of the June 5 GOP primary for this open southern New Mexico seat. The narrator declares that Herrell is a successful businesswoman who "despises big government" and promotes her as an anti-abortion Christian and a Trump conservative, themes Herrell repeats at the end.
Herrell's main primary foe, former state party chair Monty Newman, also aired his first TV ad a few weeks ago. That commercial threw a bit less red meat at the audience and instead featured Newman and his wife talking about how his son served in Iraq. The spot then immediately shifts to border security, where Newman declares he'll "stand with the president. No amnesty. Keeping America safe."
Newman held a $369,000 to $256,000 cash-on-hand edge over Herrell at the end of March, but these ads aren't the only sign that she's done a better job tapping into the conservative grass roots' id. Herrell decisively beat Newman 58-26 at the February state party convention, and she has the support of allies of the far-right House Freedom Caucus.
● NY-04, NY-AG: Democratic Rep. Kathleen Rice had recently been talked up as a potential candidate to replace disgraced former state Attorney General Eric Schneiderman, but she announced on Tuesday that she would stay out of the race and seek re-election to her blue-leaning House seat in suburban Long Island.
● NY-21: On Tuesday, attorney Don Boyajian announced he was dropping out of the Democratic primary and would instead run for the state Assembly. Boyajian had just shy of $300,000 in the bank at the end of March, which was more than any of the other Democrats competing to take on GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik.
● TX-05: GOP Rep. Pete Sessions, who represents a neighboring seat in the Dallas area, has endorsed state Rep. Lance Gooden ahead of next week's primary runoff for this safely red seat. Sessions previously backed former state Rep. Kenneth Sheets, who ended up taking a distant fourth place with just 12 percent of the vote in March.
Gooden is facing GOP fundraiser Bunni Pounds, who has the support of retiring Rep. Jeb Hensarling, Vice President Mike Pence, and the anti-tax Club for Growth. Gooden has the backing of most of the defeated candidates from the first round of the primary, but he has considerably fewer big-named supporters. But geography could give Gooden a boost: Gooden is from the larger and more conservative rural part of the district, while Pounds lives in the Dallas area.
Pounds outspent Gooden $222,000 to $134,000 from April 1 to May 2 (which the FEC defines as the pre-primary period), and they each had about $100,000 left in the bank for the homestretch. However, a pro-Gooden super PAC called Our Conservative Texas Future has spent $295,000 here, which could help counter the Club's spending.
● TX-06: The anti-tax Club for Growth is up with an ad supporting former Tarrant County Tax Assessor Ron Wright ahead of next week's GOP primary runoff against veteran Jake Ellzey. The narrator declares that the Wright will stand with Trump on taxes and labels the former congressional chief of staff as a conservative outsider. A source tells the Texas Tribune that the size of the buy is $50,000.
Wright outpaced Ellzey 45-22 in the first round of the primary in March, and a late April poll for Wright gave him a similar 47-24 lead. But while Wright is the clear favorite to succeed his old boss, retiring Rep. Joe Barton, his campaign is not in great financial shape: Ellzey outspent him $48,000 to $25,000 during the pre-primary period, and Wright has a $160,000 campaign debt.
In the final weeks of the contest, Wright has also received help from Barton, who is not exactly leaving Congress under ideal circumstances. Barton decided to retire last year after he apologized when a graphic nude photo" of him circulated online, and the public learned even more unsavory aspects of his personal life. The congressman said afterwards that, while he planned to support Wright, he's "not sure if anybody would want my endorsement, so I might come out against somebody if that helps them."
Barton is now holding events for Wright in both Washington and in this Arlington seat, so Wright seems to have decided that it's better to have the congressman in his corner than pretending to be in Ellzey's.
● TX-21: A group called National Horizon PAC, which has received money from the anti-tax Club for Growth in the past, is spending at least $106,000 against businessman and perennial candidate Matt McCall ahead of next week's GOP runoff. McCall faces Chip Roy, a former Ted Cruz chief of staff who has the Club's support, and it would be a big upset if he won. Roy outpaced McCall 27-17 in the first round in March, and he outspent him $205,000 to $52,000 during the pre-primary period. The Club has also been airing ads for Roy, while McCall hasn't gotten much outside help.
● WI-01: On Tuesday, Assemblyman Peter Barca announced that he would not seek the Democratic nod to succeed Speaker Paul Ryan. The August Democratic primary remains a duel between ironworker Randy Bryce, who is on the DCCC's Red to Blue list, and Janesville School Board member Cathy Myers.
● Where Are They Now?: Surprise, surprise: Despite resigning in disgrace last month due to a sexual harassment scandal, former GOP Rep. Blake Farenthold just landed a $160,000-a-year job as a government lobbyist for a small government port agency on the Texas coast. Even better, Farenthold has confirmed on the record that he will not repay the $84,000 in taxpayer funds used to settle the harassment claim that led to his downfall, despite previously promising to do so. By the by, Farenthold is worth almost $6 million, and now his new gig will provide him with an extra cushion. Lucky guy.
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