Ukraine has appeared in the Trump–Russia investigation from before there was an official Trump–Russia investigation. There was the incident at the Republican convention where Trump campaign officials intervened to weaken a plank in the party platform concerning support for Ukraine’s fight against Russia. There were Paul Manafort’s many connections to the pro-Russian forces in Ukraine, including the discovery that Manafort had collected millions in off-the-books payments funneled through secret accounts—which was the “distraction” that caused Manafort to step down as campaign chair. After the election, there was the Ukraine “peace plan” dropped on Michael Flynn’s desk by Michael Cohen. And, as has recently become public, there was the unbroken string of communications between Manafort, Rick Gates and their leave-behind network of associates in Ukraine.
All of which explains why a good portion of the information Special Counsel Robert Mueller would like to have either exists in, or can be confirmed by, Ukrainian sources. But there’s a problem. Ukraine is a country, and fighting off forces of Russia-supported rebels, as well as Russian forces pretending to be rebels, requires resources. And Ukraine is afraid that being too cooperative could affect the availability of those resources. Which is bad for Robert Mueller, but good for Paul Manafort.
In the United States, Paul J. Manafort is facing prosecution on charges of money laundering and financial fraud stemming from his decade of work for a pro-Russian political party in Ukraine.
But in Ukraine, where officials are wary of offending President Trump, not so much. There, four meandering cases that involve Mr. Manafort, Mr. Trump’s former campaign chairman, have been effectively frozen by Ukraine’s chief prosecutor.
But what if information from Ukraine required to make the case against Manafort—or Donald Trump? Prosecutors are used to dealing with defendants who work to cover up their own crimes, but with Trump holding the keys to U.S. overseas support, Mueller has a much greater mountain to move.
The New York Times article shows just how entangled the personal crimes of Manafort and others have become with international conduct.
The decision to halt the investigations by an anticorruption prosecutor was handed down at a delicate moment for Ukraine, as the Trump administration was finalizing plans to sell the country sophisticated anti-tank missiles, called Javelins.
Which is exactly why it’s so important to prosecute promptly and discourage this kind of crime. Left alone too long, an international criminal like Manafort generates a web of connections that can make his crimes self-protecting. Everyone, even his victims, are afraid to raise a finger against him in case that triggers a response from a powerful friend. And Ukraine, at least, sees Donald Trump as Manafort’s powerful friend, who may hold them responsible for going after Manafort even on very serious charges.
“In every possible way, we will avoid irritating the top American officials,” Mr. Ariev said in an interview. “We shouldn’t spoil relations with the administration.”
It’s not clear that anyone in the Trump administration actually threatened Ukraine with consequences if they didn’t stop prosecuting Manafort. But it is clear they thought this was highly possible. And that’s all it takes.