I neither live in Florida nor have an extensive knowledge of campaign dynamics in the Sunshine State. I’m thus interested to see what those more knowledgeable have to say about the U.S. Senate race between incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson and his challenger, Gov. Rick Scott. The impetus for my inquiry is today’s Politico article on whether Nelson is “choking” away the race (h/t Political Wire).
The article paints a pretty dire picture, claiming national Democrats might cut off funding for Nelson if it begins to look like he can’t win. Publicly released polling is scarce, as shown in this Real Clear Politics chart. The one August poll has Scott up 45-39, but most other polls have had Nelson between 44-49 (with Scott up 1.5% on average). Politico offers only the vague statement that, “It’s been a month since Nelson led a public poll. Private polling, even surveys conducted by Democrats, also show Nelson behind Scott.” The question is, by how much is Nelson behind in these private polls?
Given that Scott won both his gubernatorial terms by essentially 1 percent (1.2% in 2010 and 1.0% in 2014) in strong Republican years, one would think he’d have a much harder time in what appears to be a strong Democratic year. Also, despite Scott’s massive spending and advertising advantage thus far, he has not pulled away in the polls. My hope is that Nelson has been saving his money for the final two months and can gain some advertising traction (albeit probably not parity with Scott’s expenditures). Also, Nelson will need to start campaigning more vigorously and visibly.
Am I too optimistic?