www.cookpolitical.com/…
Republican incumbent congressman Chris Collins will not withdraw from his reelection bid in New York’s 27th district despite his indictment for insider trading.
Cook Political Report moves this normally safe Republican district to lean Republican. It had been shifted to likely Republican earlier when the indictment was made public on the assumption that Collins would drop out and be replaced.
New York's 27th CD takes in Buffalo's most Republican suburbs and voted for President Trump 59 percent to 35 percent in 2016. Collins, a former Erie County executive and one of the wealthiest members of Congress, became Trump's first congressional endorser in early 2016 and took 67 percent in 2016. But in his last competitive race in 2012, he only defeated Democratic Rep. Kathy Hochul 51 percent to 49 percent…
The indictment won't prevent Collins from using his personal wealth to attack McMurray as a carpetbagger, and Collins will attempt to neutralize his legal problems by citing McMurray's use of his town email account for political purposes to equate him with Hillary Clinton. At R+11, this seat is about as GOP-leaning as the PA-18 seat Democrat Conor Lamb won in March. It's now a competitive race.
Also from Dave Wasserman at Cook Report:
Dave WassermanVerified account @Redistrict 38m38 minutes ago
A handful of R seats in Toss Up are in increasingly dire shape, maybe on verge of Lean D (but maybe not quite as bad as #VA10 yet):#CO06 Coffman#MN02 Lewis#MN03 Paulsen#VA02 Taylor
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Quinnipiac Poll of Texas Senate Race Out of Line with Other Polls
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...
A Quinnipiac Poll of the Senate race between Ted Cruz and Beto O’Rourke shows a 9% lead for Cruz (54% to 45%).
Four other polls in the last six weeks have shown Cruz with a lead between one and four points. It is hard to see any event that might have changed the race so fundamentally.
NYT/Sienna live poll has asked about the Texas Senate race in the two congressional districts they have so far surveyed in that state. Both are represented by Republican congressmen who lead in the poll, but TX CD-7 has O’Rourke leading in this west Houston district. Interesting, but hardly conclusive since these are only two districts out of 35.
www.nytimes.com/...
Sienna/NYT Polls of TX Districts
District |
Location |
Democrat |
Republican |
Trump
App/Dis
|
O’Rourke/Cruz |
PVI |
Trump % 2016 |
TX Cd-7 |
Houston
urban/sub.;
multiethnic
|
Fletcher
45%
|
Culberson (I)
48%
|
42/52
Dis +10
|
51/43
O’Rourke +8
|
R +7 |
-1 |
TX
CD-23
|
San Antonio/
West Tex/border;
Hispanic &
white
|
Jones
43%
|
Hurd (I)
51%
|
48/47
App
+1
|
46/50
Cruz +4
|
R +1 |
-3 |
Running a fundamental in TX-Sen based off of PVI, candidate experience, fundraising, and the generic ballot... O'Rourke leads by those metrics. Take that fwiw.