As has already been detailed here (www.dailykos.com/...), we’re on Day 16 of the Trump Shutdown, and as of this writing — 1615 hours Eastern Time, 6 January 2019 — there is no resolution in sight as there is virtually no substantive pressure upon either Trump or McConnell to negotiate. Indeed, Trump is now making absurd-sounding noise about declaring a “national emergency” in order to fund his oft-mentioned wall. I say “absurd-sounding” because, let’s be blunt, there’s no objective reality to his claims or excuses, and so few examples from our history that they offer no guide how might excuse such a declaration.
Yet, I feel we should take him entirely at his word and be prepared for him to do just this. Donald Trump has already shown himself to be someone that recognizes the limits or norms of his office. He’s embraced the most retrograde positions and policies our politics have seen since the early 20th Century, when the anti-immigrant Know Nothings were so visible and the hype-moralists gave us Prohibition. The damage done to our polity by those two groups was, thankfully, comparatively minimal versus what Trump and the GOP have inflicted upon us since the days of Reagan and his successors.
My point is Trump has already taken significant steps towards isolating the US from our allies, undermining the economy, de-legitimizing the press and the courts, and throwing shade unto our national character in ways I’m not sure we appreciate nor if we’ll ever fully recover from. Yes, those problems were all there before him — in many ways Bush43 was the most destructive administration to America’s international standing and character, given its foolish reactions to 9/11 — but Trump has shown his concerns extend no further than his own ego and personal preferences (the two often times being the same thing).
Donald J Trump cares only for whatever makes Donald J Trump look and feel good at that given moment. Nothing and no-one is of any consideration for him.
Given such an otherwise-impenetrably narrow worldview, we should be prepared for this shutdown to extend past the 21 days that marked the longest one to date. Should be prepared, both mentally and professionally and politically, for it to drag on for “months” that Trump has already threatened. This is especially true of McConnell persists in being more scared of Trump’s voters than of his political ground falling out from under his feet. While there are substantial financial interests who can and will be impacted by this shutdown persisting much longer, Trump’s voters have shown themselves to be easily-incited (and not terribly rational or restrained) when it comes to expressing themselves towards those Trump has expressed displeasure towards.
Potentially getting primaried in a couple years, versus very possibly being attacked by some MAGA-hat-wearing “patriot” who Trump has primed with a lot of loaded rhetoric? Not a terribly hard calculus to understand, and I suspect very much in the forefront of McConnell’s thinking. It was only a few months ago a single loon tried to eliminate a lot of the ‘opposition leadership’ with homemade pipe bombs, the targets saved through sharp protective actions and bad bomb construction. The next targets of such packages might not be so fortunate.
We should likewise be prepared for him to at least try to declare some form of “national emergency” within the next week or two. I can’t begin to imagine what will come of such a move, but past legal reactions give one cautious hope (which the current, presently-untried configuration of the Roberts Court equally counters). Even if the SCOTUS refuses to side with him, who is to say Trump won’t move forward claiming ‘emergency powers’ anyway?
We are very much in uncharted waters now, and should be prepared for what was previously-believed as “unthinkable”: the federal government possibly imploding, and Trump declaring his national emergency without end.
I pray I’m wrong. And if I’m not, I pray our community is greater than whatever disagreements over past elections and primaries and such have provoked.
Sunday, Jan 6, 2019 · 11:21:34 PM +00:00
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merchantbard
UPDATE: one comment raises a very cogent point, namely:
So why didn’t he do it two years ago?
I suspect its a number of things, chief among them is that Trump — for all his intellectual and cognitive limitations — is showman enough to have a basic sense of timing for these things. And for the past two years the GOP has had unified control of the government and the Democratic caucus has clearly been too weak to actually affect his actions in any meaningful way; this is debatable, of course, as there’s been a national mobilization against Trump and the GOP whose ultimate impact is still uncertain.
The point however is that for the last two years Trump has not had a clear and singular enemy within the government to rage against, and his casting about for external enemies has equally come up short (at least for someone who can play well beyond his small base of MAGAniacs).
However, now the House is firmly under the control of the Democratic Party, who have already made their reach and intentions known. Now he has someone who is in active, direct opposition to him and his agenda who has genuine power that he can point to and scream at.
Now he has a clear enemy, and now he has something (admittedly self-created) that he can use to attack them with and claim brings a ‘genuine’ emergency by their actions.
Its total dross and bunk, but then so is pretty much everything he peddles to the rubes. Here’s hoping its no more successful than Trump Steaks were.