This week brought us the first public hearings in the impeachment inquiry into Donald J. Trump on the basis of his attempted bribery and extortion of a foreign government to open criminal investigations into his political rival Joseph Biden and to rewrite the entire 2016 Russia election scandal onto Ukraine.
As of now, it is essentially a certainty that the trial phase of Trump's removal from office will be tanked by Mitch McConnell in the Senate. The odds that nearly 20 Republican senators can be convinced to jump the fence and vote to remove are basically that it is an impossibility. It's nearly beyond imagination. We don't yet know what the impact of the hearings will be; we don't yet know if the sustained presentation of Trump's selfish mendacity to manipulate foreign policy for his personal gain will move the needle with the public far enough to change the Senate calculus.
However, the argument has been made that most of the elected members of the GOP deeply loathe Mr. Trump. They very seriously hate him personally. They agree with him on policy, but, as Anthony Scaramucci and Rick Wilson have argued, there are 26 or 27 GOP senators that are just plain sick and tired of having to put up with and explain his endless shenanigans. If the vote on removal were taken in secret, they say, as many as 30 Republicans would sell Trump down the river.
If that's true, there's a chance. There's a sliver of a chance that, when all is said and done, Trump just might be removed from office. He might soon be gone.
Clearly, it would be a shock. It would be a massive trauma to remove a sitting White House resident as a result of his abuse of power in office. The country would be stunned. We'd be like the dog who caught the car: What exactly would we do with it?
What happens to the Democratic primary process if Trump is taken off the GOP ticket and suddenly the headliner that all our candidates are pitted against is a freshly minted President Pence? The question of "Who can beat Trump?" would be thrown out the window. How strong a candidate would Pence be as the surviving member of an administration that will have just been torn asunder? Would he run on a platform of revenge against the Democrats that sacked Trump, even when a significant number of Senate Republicans will have to have driven the final fatal stake through the heart?
Putting that aside for the moment, would Trump drop out of the race? Even after being impeached and removed, would he be so bullheaded that he would stay in the election and continue to run to get his old job back even though, under the Constitution, he would then be forever disqualified for office?
The only way that Trump could continue to run in the election is if he resigned from office before the final Senate vote to remove. He would then not be disqualified from holding an "Office of Honor," but then he would no longer be protected by the Office of Legal Counsel memos that have argued that a sitting president can not be subject to federal criminal prosecution. That means that the floodgates of outstanding charges from the Mueller investigation, SDNY, and the New York attorney general would fly open, and indictments on various charges would be headed Trump's way.
Then again, for all of that—on the federal level—freshly minted President Pence could issue a pardon for Trump, for all his actions while in the White House and during the campaign.
That would be a mess. Our long national nightmare would be over, but just as it was before with President Nixon, if would be unsatisfying. Unfulfilling.
Also, whether Trump chooses to resign or is forcibly removed, there would be a festering feeling of resentment among his hardcore supporters, who would continue to support him even if he shot a man on Fifth Ave. In that case, they'd call his murder trial "biased." The Washington Post reported:
If Trump were ultimately forced from office, they wouldn't believe it. They wouldn't accept it. Even if 30 Republican senators turn against him, would his base? Would they still remain as hangers-on, arguing that poor Trump was "railroaded" in a coup that stole his office? Would they turn bitter and vengeful? Would they turn violent? Would this lead to the sparking of a hot civil war across the nation?
Rep. Louie Gohmert has made a similar argument.
“Never in the history of this country have we had such gross unfairness that one party would put armed guards with guns to prevent the duly authorized people from being able to hear the witnesses and see them for themselves,” the congressman griped.
“That’s not the kind of evidence that a coup should be based on,” Gohmert ranted. “If we’re going to have what they’re trying to legalize as a coup, we ought to have a right to see each of those witnesses.”
The Texas Republican went on to warn of a “civil war” if House Democrats continue down the path of impeachment.
“It’s about to push this country to a civil war if they were to get their wishes,” Gohmert opined. “And if there’s one thing I don’t want to see in my lifetime, I don’t want to ever have participation in, it’s a civil war. Some historian, I don’t remember who, said, guns are only involved in the last phase of a civil war.”
Trump and Gohmert are both inveterate liars, of course, but it has to be considered: Could his ouster truly spark a shooting war within the U.S. on partisan grounds?
Will groups like the Oath Keepers, the Three Percenters, Identity Evropa, and the Proud Boys rise up and take up arms against the rest of the nation? Particularly since it's now become obvious that Trump adviser Stephen Miller is one of their fellow travelers, according to his emails to Brietbart?
The emails, which Miller sent to the conservative website Breitbart News in 2015 and 2016, showcase the extremist, anti-immigrant ideology that undergirds the policies he has helped create as an architect of Donald Trump’s presidency. These policies include reportedly setting arrest quotas for undocumented immigrants, an executive order effectively banning immigration from five Muslim-majority countries and a policy of family separation at refugee resettlement facilities that the Department of Health and Human Services’ Office of Inspector General said is causing “intense trauma” in children.
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Hatewatch reviewed more than 900 previously private emails Miller sent to Breitbart editors from March 4, 2015, to June 27, 2016. Miller does not converse along a wide range of topics in the emails. His focus is strikingly narrow – more than 80 percent of the emails Hatewatch reviewed relate to or appear on threads relating to the subjects of race or immigration. Hatewatch made multiple attempts to reach the White House for a comment from Miller about the content of his emails but did not receive any reply.
Miller’s perspective on race and immigration across the emails is repetitious. When discussing crime, which he does scores of times, Miller focuses on offenses committed by nonwhites. On immigration, he touches solely on the perspective of severely limiting or ending nonwhite immigration to the United States. Hatewatch was unable to find any examples of Miller writing sympathetically or even in neutral tones about any person who is nonwhite or foreign-born.
Yes, of course that could happen. Arguably, it's already been happening.
The American Patriots Three Percent appear to be recruiting around the civil war threat. The group shared a YouTube video from a conspiratorial media outlet claiming that militias are "activating all across the country" to prepare to combat "an illegal coup taking over the United States of America." The video appeared Wednesday, one day after Trump called the impeachment inquiry in the House of Representatives a "coup."
Talk of civil war among militia groups has been ongoing for years. Whether it’s anger over immigration and the lack of a wall across the southern border, or concern over a socialist takeover and gun regulation, militias have long taken to social media to pledge they’re ready for a fight.
Back in 2014, the conservative talk-show provocateur Michael Savage, who’s spread antisemitic views and given airtime to white nationalist conspiracy theories, wrote “Stop the Coming Civil War.” His book argued that President Barack Obama’s election in 2008 “might represent the final nail in the coffin of freedom.”
While Trump has been in office, hate crimes have been on the rise and have reached a 16-year high.
Personal attacks motivated by bias or prejudice reached a 16-year high in 2018, the F.B.I. said Tuesday, with a significant upswing in violence against Latinos outpacing a drop in assaults targeting Muslims and Arab-Americans.
Over all, the number of hate crimes of all kinds reported in the United States remained fairly flat last year after a three-year increase, according to an annual F.B.I. report. But while crimes against property were down, physical assaults against people were up, accounting for 61 percent of the 7,120 incidents classified as hate crimes by law enforcement officials nationwide.
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In addition, experts say that more than half of all victims of hate crimes never file a complaint with the authorities in the first place.
“The trends show more violence, more interpersonal violence, and I think that’s probably reliable,” said James Nolan, a former F.B.I. crime analyst who helped oversee the National Hate Crime Data Collection Program from 1995-2000.
Short of acts of violence, we also have a widening series of intolerant movements that have recently sprung up. One of those is the self-styled "Fandom Menace" of Star Wars and sci fi/fantasy genre fans who resent the "diversity agenda" of "wokeness" that they claim is part of the Disney/CBS/Access Media agenda. They essentially feel that Hollywood is forcing female and minority lead characters and stories down their throats and injecting its inclusion politics into popular media. This is a backlash against representation by female characters such as Rey and Rose from Star Wars, Michael Burnham in Star Trek, and Brie Larson as Captain Marvel in the Marvel movie franchise, who have all been mocked, harassed, and repeatedly threatened with death.
Like most racists and sexists, the followers of this doctrine blatantly deny that their opposition to inclusion politics is sexist or racist or bigoted in any way. They just don't want good characters "replaced" by Mary Sue-forced diversity characters.
Yes, this is really a thing.
The argument is that the corporate powers are forcing their social justice warrior agenda onto the public, which is largely the same argument that was used by Trump in criticizing the influence of Jeff Bezos and George Soros. White people are being replaced by black people. Men are being replaced by women. Straight characters are being replaced by LGBTQ characters. It's all part of a deep dark corporate plot.
It's frankly crazed.
This paranoia is the same as that of the Proud Boys. It's the same as Identity Evropa at its core. But it has to be said that older fans can clearly have issues with newer versions of their favorite franchises. People can, and should, be able to criticize characters even if they happen to be female, even if they happen to be a minority. It is truly not fair to dump on someone simply because they happen to be white or male. That isn't their fault; it's simply the state of things. People could criticize Barack Obama without being racist. People can support Donald Trump without being racist. We've had these demographic battles for decades, and just as we've argued over affirmative action and the #MeToo movement, we will continue to have to debate and balance out these issues of inclusion and diversity. A mere 25 years ago, this was effectively the state of minority representation in Hollywood:
Minority roles were typecast and limited for basically the first 100 years of Hollywood. I have a friend, who is an Asian actor, named Archie Kao. He's had roles as a Power Ranger, as a regular on the original CSI, and during the first season of Chicago P.D., where his character was suddenly killed as a throwaway side plot in the final two episodes of that year. He now works in Hong Kong doing movies because there simply aren't enough quality roles offered to Asian actors in Hollywood. And he's not from China; he was born in Washington, D.C.
Change is the nature of progress. All this will change, and as it does, people will complain. Hollywood is a projection of what we imagine; it's a project of the world as we might see it. Before Barack Obama was elected president, there had been a black president presented on 24 and also in the movie Deep Impact. When we can imagine it, we can implement it.
if Trump is removed or resigns, we can expect more of this backlash. We can expect many more Permit Pattys walking around using their cell phones to call the police on innocent minorities who dare to walk, or talk, or exist in public. We can expect more direct acts of violence. We can expect yet another series of massacres like those in Christchurch and at the Tree of Life synagogue, which will be blamed on "The Left" and immigration and Jews and gays, in retaliation for what was done to poor Donald Trump after he was caught in his crimes. We can probably expect yet another mail bomb attack like the one attempted by uber-Trump fan Cesar Sayoc. We can expect more people railing wildly about "political correctness run amok" and the evils of the diversity agenda.
If we win, there will be consequences.
But then, there are always consequences. These people, those who would take up arms against their fellow Americans, are, in fact, terrorists. They are criminals; they are traitors. Those who try to lecture and gatekeep others on "inclusion" are problematic. The Trump administration crashing and burning will not be what turns them into murderers, not if that's what they already are. Trump will merely be an excuse. A scapegoat. This is who they already are, and, frankly, I think having them drop the pretense of being reasonable regular people will be refreshing. The lies, the denials, and the covers on hidden agendas should all be stripped away, all cards up on the table—then we can sort everything out.
If we win, they will be finally admitting exactly who and what they are, and the rest of America will have a chance to deal with them, to respond to them, and, if warranted, to finally put them exactly where they deserve to be: in jail.
When Barack Obama was elected president, we thought we had grown past all this. We thought the shadow of the failed Reconstruction, Jim Crow, the Southern Strategy, and decadeslong racist War on Drugs policies were finally behind us. We were wrong.
The bigoted backlash against Obama was brewing while he was in the White House, and it was the fuel and fire behind the candidacy of Trump. When Trump eventually goes down, whether it's thanks to Congress or to the 2020 election, that backlash will still exist. It will still fester.
One way or another, it needs to be faced. It needs to be challenged, and just as much as Donald Trump himself does, it needs to be defeated.