Due to the massive and significant changes in the Democratic primary cycle this year, by end of Super Tuesday (March 3) we may have a very very good idea who the nominee will be. The road to Super Tuesday runs through Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. Those four contests are important only to the extent that they will shape and influence the events that lead up to the 1,358 delegates that will be earned on Super Tuesday, as the total delegate count for those contests is small (only 155 delegates all together).
DATE |
STATE |
Delegates |
Feb. 3 |
Iowa |
41 |
Feb. 11 |
New Hampshire |
24 |
Feb. 22 |
Nevada |
36 |
Feb. 29 |
South Carolina |
54 |
Mar. 3 |
SUPER TUESDAY |
1358 |
So what’s the road to Super Tuesday look like right now? The following charts of the present polling averages can give us a good idea of what might happen. The Iowa and New Hampshire polling averages are probably the best indicators at this point of what might happen in the four pre-Super Tuesday states. The candidates have all been campaigning hard in Iowa and New Hampshire. Thus, barring any major developments (which could happen), Iowa will have a clear top four with Buttigieg solidly on top.
Iowa (Feb. 3):
CANDIDATE |
Percentage |
Buttigieg |
24.0% |
Sanders |
18.3% |
Warren |
17.7% |
Biden |
16.3% |
Klobuchar |
5.3% |
A win for Buttigieg in Iowa would obviously give his campaign a major boost. And the big loser in that scenario would likely be Biden. Especially, since the polling averages show Buttigieg winning New Hampshire eight days later! One can only expect that Buttigieg would have a bigger win in New Hampshire if he won Iowa, and Biden would have a bigger loss.
New Hampshire (Feb. 11):
Candidate |
Percentage |
Buttigieg |
20.0% |
Sanders |
17.0% |
Warren |
14.3% |
Biden |
13.7% |
Gabbard |
5.0% |
The expected results in Iowa and New Hampshire would likely have a profound impact on Nevada. While Biden is running very strong in Nevada now, two fourth place finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire would damage his Nevada chances because the media would have 11 days to run “Biden’s a loser” stories. Hard to believe that Biden would stay solidly in first place, and Buttigieg would not pick up votes, in that scenario. Especially, when those 11 days between Iowa and New Hampshire would include some serious campaigning in Nevada by the contenders. So the Nevada polling averages are likely to be shaken up by the Iowa and New Hampshire results.
Nevada (Feb. 22):
CANDIDATE |
Percentage |
Biden |
29.0% |
Warren |
20.0% |
Sanders |
19.8% |
Buttigieg |
7.3% |
Harris |
4.0% |
Which brings us to South Carolina. South Carolina is an oddity this year. The S.C. primary occurs only three days before Super Tuesday. It is highly likely that after the Nevada primary (and probably even before) the candidates will start focusing on Super Tuesday states, and South Carolina will be perceived as a blip in the road. The first three primaries may damage Biden enough that his support will slip substantially, opening up opportunities for other candidates. While Harris may be on life support by South Carolina, it is possible she’ll get a bump. Very hard to predict. And probably not at all important to Super Tuesday results.
South Carolina (Feb. 29):
CANDIDATE |
PERCENTAGE |
Biden |
35.5% |
Warren |
16.3% |
Sanders |
12.8% |
Buttigieg |
6.5% |
Harris |
6.3% |
Its a long road, but it will be interesting to see what happens.
For me, the lessons are:
(1) We’re in a four horse race right now;
(2) Biden is going to get hurt by Iowa and New Hampshire;
(3) Iowa and New Hampshire will likely impact Nevada and South Carolina; and
(4) South Carolina is likely of much diminished importance because it is right before Super Tuesday and the candidates will be giving it diminished attention. As a result, South Carolina will likely be viewed as an outlier — especially given that South Carolina is not a Democratic state or a potential battle ground.