In discussions of the Green New Deal, there is lot of discussion about how ambitious its various elements are, but not enough discussion about how many of those have good models in the rest of the world, which moved past the US: be it the expansion of renewables in Denmark or Spain, the near-100% building renovation rate in Germany, or high-speed rail in China. This diary is about another subject: the global metro revolution, a trillion-dollar phenomenon about which most Americans heard next to nothing (because what US mainstream media knows about it is next to nothing).
I use "metro" as a generic term for an urban passenger rail system that has its own exclusive right-of-way (not shared with other types of trains), runs grade-separated (usually as subway or elevated) and is designed for very high capacity (hundreds of thousands of passengers each day). This is generally the most expensive mode of urban transit (a broader term which also includes light rail, suburban rail and buses) and is typically used as the backbone of a multi-level public transport system in cities with a population exceeding 1 million. In the US, there are ten metro systems, some of them fairly old (New York City, Chicago), others newer (Atlanta, Miami, LA, Washington DC). Some have been expanded in recent years, but not by much.
Now let's look at the rest of the world.
The most spectacular part of the metro revolution is what happened in China (minus Hong Kong). Back in planned-economy times, only three Soviet-style lines were built in two cities (Beijing and nearby Tianjin). In the nineties, only two more cities joined the fray (Shanghai and Guangzhou), then the leadership banned new construction with the aim to rebuild cities for cars with the US as model. This disastrous decision was reversed in light of traffic jams and rising air pollution ahead of the 2008 Olympics. What followed was a metro construction boom which can only be compared to China's own high-speed rail programme in its scale and costs:
- more than 100 miles (route length) of new lines have been added each year since 2009;
- in five of those ten years (including the last three), new additions exceeded the total network length of the NYC Subway (245 miles);
- more than 2000 miles are currently under construction;
- by now, 33 Chinese cities are operating metros, while at least seven more are constructing their first lines;
- three of those metro systems (Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou) exceed NYC's in network length, with another half a dozen well on their way to achieve the same feat.
And it’s not just quantity, but quality, too: all of these systems are state-of-the-art, usually squeaky-clean, many are automated and equipped with broadband wireless.
Something similar is happening in India. In the 20th century, only one short metro line has been built in one city (Kolkata/Calcutta). Then Delhi opened its first line in 2002, and expanded its network to 200 miles since. The next phase of expansion (to be completed by 2025) is to push network length beyond NYC's, too. And Delhi is not alone: nine more Indian cities joined the fray in the current decade. As in China, all of these systems (which, due to monsoons, are typically built elevated) are state-of-the-art, too. Even more noteworthy: although a public project in a country notorious for corruption, Delhi Metro set global standards for multi-billion-dollar projects delivered on time and budget and for operating at a profit without subsidies (something extremely rare for mass transit systems).
China and India should serve as examples for the US that large-scale green investment can be done and can be done efficiently. But another region of the world can serve as an example that urban rail can take off even in car-centric cultures: the Gulf states. If anything, the oil-rich Gulf states are even more car-friendly and luxury-obsessed than the US. Still, Dubai decided to build a metro, and opened its first line in 2009. It proved an unmitigated success, with ridership increasing significantly each year (now beyond half a million daily), prompting further network expansion. All the other Gulf states took notice, and began their own projects in half a dozen cities over the past five years. Being awash in oil money, they are building entire networks (up to 100 miles in network length!) all at once, with a dozen tunnel boring machines working in parallel and budgets in the tens of billions of dollars. These metros will all enter service over the next few years.
While the insane level of investment in China, India and the Gulf states is the most spectacular, the metro revolution is truly global: there is massive expansion of existing systems and several new systems in South Korea (taken together, the networks of half a dozen operators in the Seoul conurbation form the biggest metro network in the world by far), in Taiwan, across almost all countries of Southeast Asia, in Iran, in Turkey, in several countries in Latin America, and even in Africa. And you'd think demand is saturated in old Europe, but no: almost all European cities with metro systems opened or started constructing new lines in recent years, and some of the oldest systems even embarked on major expansion programmes (Moscow, Vienna, Paris, Barcelona).
If you want to explore metro systems across the world, I recommend you to browse the site UrbanRail.Net.
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What drives this metro revolution? There isn't a single cause, but here are some major factors:
- people recognise that cars just aren't the most efficient & convenient means of transport in dense urban areas
- some countries or cities could just ignore the anti-public-spending dogma of the last few decades
- experience in good project management spread around
- some “under-the-hood” technological innovations largely unknown to passengers significantly increased energy efficiency & operational efficiency (asynchronous and permanent magnet synchronous motors, inverters enabling regenerative braking, aluminium bodyshells & laser welding, LED lights, the CBTC train control system etc.)
- the combination of several small improvements increased convenience and comfort significantly (air conditioning, dirt-resistant and graffiti-reistant coatings, slip-resistant floors and cantilever seats for easy cleaning, flatscreen information systems, mobile ticketing, in-tunnel broadband wireless etc.)
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Should the US attempt to reproduce successes abroad with its own metro revolution, there are two obstacles to overcome which are particular to the US.
One is the predilection to go for the flashy new stuff instead of the tried & tested stuff, especially when the flashy new stuff is impractical or even a scam. This is the attitude which was perfectly satirized by the classic The Simpsons episode with the Monorail Song. It would blow up this article to detail the reasons, but I see Elon Musk's "Urban Loop" idea as a perfect example of this, a stillborn concept (unlike SpaceX or Tesla) for reasons of capacity, safety & maintainability that already served as excuse for some mayors to abandon sensible public transport projects.
An even bigger problem to face is that the way projects are done in the US today, they are extremely over-priced. Understand that the per mile cost of New York's Second Avenue Subway is a world record waaaay beyond the per mile cost of the most financially disastrous projects anywhere else in the world. And this is not just about delays & cost over-runs: due to inefficiency and institutionalised corruption, US projects cost a lot more than similar projects elsewhere at the design stage already. And I'm not talking about 10-30%, but 200-1000%. To change this, the whole process needs to be overhauled, for which it would be best to bring in experienced hands from regions showing most success in keeping costs under control (that would be India, Spain & Austria).