As was made clear on Maddow’s show last night, Congress/Impeachment isn’t the only option.
It’s also dawned on me in the last 24 hours that for all our hope that once he wrapped up his investigation “Mueller Time” would be the end of things (and I fell for the notion — hard) that was never going to be the case. Mueller’s work was, due to that damned DOJ policy about not indicting a sitting President would prevent Mueller from doing all he was capable of doing against anyone who’s name was not preceded by the title “President of the United States.” I guess I had an epiphany of sorts — the realization that for any indictments and convictions Mueller might obtain along the way, the work of his team would be the equivalent of a professional sports team’s “pre-season” where they sorted through matters with “pre-season” “games” to get ready for the regular season. Or you can think of it this way: While we hoped for things to happen right away, in our hearts we knew when the decision was made to appoint a Special Counsel the process would be a marathon instead of a sprint. Many if not most folks (including me) had figured Mueller wrapping up his own work and submitting a report would be the finish line like it was with Ken Star. However, a look at history shows prosecutions continue beyond an Independent/Special Counsel submitting a report. So what’s taken place to date is a series of 10K training runs, and the actual marathon is only now beginning. IOW it’s all been a warmup, or as Lawrence O’Donnell said the other night quoting Winston Churchill it’s “The end of the beginning.”
That’s why I’m suggesting (for now at least) we refrain from shouting “IMPEACHMENT” the way Republicans kept (and sometimes still do) shouted “BENGHAZI!!!”
People are (understandably) asking why a formal Impeachment Hearing hasn’t been announced. Steny Hoyer shooting off his mouth poured fuel on the fire. I’ve seen comments about Speaker Pelosi both pro and con ranging from she isn’t happy Hoyer spoke out so quickly to he wouldn’t have done so if she hadn’t at least specifically approved what he said. I’ve even seen it said that if Hoyer spoke out of school that Pelosi is incompetent, worthless etc. for not being able to control her caucus. Let’s face it — Mueller’s report is by accounts from people smarter than I am incredibly damning (I’m far from done reading it btw) and not only tells us stuff we pretty much knew but plenty more. IOW I don’t think it’s crazy to talk about Impeachment. I understand the arguments in favor of it. I also know that for the moment voting out Articles of Impeachment isn’t going to result in conviction in the Senate, and could in fact backfire. Hell, Team Trump is praying for the Democrats to jump ahead and vote out Articles of Impeachment in the weeks ahead. So I get the idea of proceeding carefully and laying the necessary groundwork. And in the process wounding Trump and his Presidency so badly that if he’s Impeached but the Senate doesn’t convict that unlike with Clinton voter outrage won’t be against Democrats but against the GOP. Even better it could wind up helping us retake the Senate in 2020.
There are multiple investigations taking place now, both in Congress and by federal and state prosecutors in multiple jurisdictions, including some against Trump and his spawn directly. All that is going to hurt Trump and by extension the GOP. I for one think it’s too early to make any decisions about whether a failed attempt to remove Trump via the Impeachment process will help or hurt us in 2020. So as I said in the title we should all take a deep breath.
Here’s another reason to proceed with some caution. I’m not even a quarter way through the (redacted) Mueller report, and I already realize that what I’ve heard some of the experts who plowed through it this afternoon say surely applies to all of us who aren’t experts — there is so much there it will take multiple readings to get a handle on the thing. That btw is with the redacted version, which as far as I can tell so far isn’t “lightly redacted” as the Washington Post was reporting last night. From where I sit if what I’m seeing is “light” I’d hate to see what they’d regard as heavy redaction! There is a wealth of counter-intelligence information that had to be redacted and not just sources and methods. And it seems that ongoing investigations/prosecutions (including additional charges against Manafort as he currently sits rotting in prison) had to be protected. Those are redactions that were (probably) mostly made by the intel community and prosecutors working on ongoing investigations/prosecutions. I can live with that, but then there is the stuff directly attributable solely to Barr. For example Grand Jury material which of course can be obtained although Barr has no intention of asking the Presiding Judge to authorize it’s release, if only to Congress. In addition to hiding anything the Grand Jury produced Barr came up with another category he hasn’t bothered to define — “third parties” who’s “reputations” would be harmed by being named. So we have two legitimate areas of redaction and two which are nothing more than Barr covering up for as long as he can get away with.
Here’s a few things to keep in mind. If you are old enough to remember Watergate then you remember that while some in the GOP (reluctantly) went along with the investigation most of the GOP stuck with Nixon until the end. It was only when the Oval Office tapes with Nixon and his “crew” literally discussing the crimes and the cover up that GOP support collapsed & led to that meeting at the WH where Nixon was told that he’d not come close to surviving a vote to convict on the Articles of Impeachment headed their way from the House. The tapes were the “smoking gun” that even GOP stalwarts couldn’t ignore. With Trump’s well known aversion to emails, and even having people around him taking notes (something that preceded his entry into politics btw) the likelihood of a smoking gun was rather small. Hopes were raised with the revelation Trump’s former fixer Michael Cohen recorded stuff and some of it has born fruit but not, at least so far as much as we hoped for. There are however those ongoing (and redacted) investigations/prosecutions that Mueller farmed out because they didn’t specifically relate to his mandate.
There is also that wealth of intelligence/counter-intelligence information that Mueller developed as part of his investigation. Again, it’s been pointed out on TV that Mueller specifically referenced all that while noting his mandate was limited to investigating whether an crimes were committed related to conspiring with Russia/Russians to win the election and obstruction of justice. He learned a LOT via the intelligence/counter-intelligence work but that wasn’t part of his brief. But he did investigate and document it, and basically said “Hey Congress — I’ve found a bunch of stuff that wasn’t my responsibility to deal with but it’s ready and waiting for you so come and get it.”
Barr will surely try, but according to the experts he won’t be able to prevent either the Senate or House Intel committees from having access to every bit of it. As soon as it can be delivered to them which means when they get back from Easter break it’s theirs to have. Who knows what kind of “smoking gun(s)” might be in there? Stuff that might cause even Republicans to freak out like happened during Watergate when the tapes finally got handed over? I’m not counting chickens but I’m not about to discount the possibility that for all Trump’s paranoia there might be intelligence that can be revealed that provides if not a “smoking gun” can allow Congress to do so in a way that won’t compromise national security, or sources & methods.
Having said all that, remember what I said in the first line of this diary? Congress isn’t the only option and it seems Mueller also more or less said so in the redacted report that was released. For all the legal reasoning that laid out why he didn’t indict Trump, and his making it clear that since he was proscribed by DOJ policy from doing so but Congress had authority to do what he couldn’t Mueller reminded us of something else. Something that’s been forgotten in all the hoopla and discussion of DOJ policy on not indicting sitting Presidents.
That same DOJ policy makes clear the fact that Presidents eventually leave Office.
More importantly it plainly states that once out of Office there is nothing, nothing at all that shields them from indictment and/or prosecution for any crimes including those committed while in Office!
The very same “road map” Mueller laid out regarding Trump’s obstruction of justice isn’t limited to use only by Congress. In as little as 18 months Trump might well be an ex-President. If we give him the ass whipping he so surely deserves in November, 2020 the very first Cabinet appointment that should be made by the Democratic President-Elect is Attorney General. I’d be willing to bet that given the way Trump has trashed the DOJ there will be any number of experienced career professionals waiting, and ready with charges prepared. Trump will be under indictment so fast his head will spin. There is after all nothing that prevents the new Senate (especially if we take control) from confirming a new Attorney General prior to the Inauguration. It’s happened before, and with other Cabinet Officers (say a Secretary of State — more on that in a bit) as well. Not all transitions are cluster fucks after all. The thing is, a new AG could quickly get a Grand Jury started which could quickly approve and indictment on the obstruction, even if it takes sitting in their room during the inauguration and voting a “true bill” moments after the new President is sworn in. If other evidence develops on conspiracy with Russia/Russians before then it might take longer to get indictments but that’s what superseding indictments are for. Wouldn’t it be awesome to see Trump walk out the back of the Capitol building, and on the way to the Presidential helicopter for his last ride be intercepted by FBI agents (who Trump has also gone to great lengths to trash/piss off) intercept him and slap on handcuffs? Ok, so I have a rich and overly developed & weird fantasy life but realistically speaking it’s possible. I’ll take my hope where I can get it. But even if that’s moving too fast, a new Secretary of State could revoke Trump’s passport to keep him from fleeing to a non-extradition country of his choice.
So, while I’d love to see Trump be the first President in U.S. history to be Impeached AND convicted in the Senate Democrats in Congress can weaken him so badly without the impeachment process he will lose in 2020 and lose big. It’s not like a Republican AG would prosecute Trump anyway, so if Democrats decide on a strategy of tending to the kitchen table issues that got us the House last fall while also conducting legitimate and what will surely be fruitful investigations that take down both Trump and the GOP overall his ass will be headed to jail at roughly the same time as if he were impeached and convicted later this year.
I’ll settle for that.
Yes, despite the bullshit Barr is spreading Mueller made it clear he didn’t want or expect Barr to stick his nose into matters, but rather was turning matters over to the only jurisdiction who can do anything with the information he’s developed.
But Mueller also noted that Trump won’t be President forever. So if for some reason Congress can’t or won’t take care of matters a new Attorney General can do what Mueller isn’t allowed to starting in January, 2021.