I do not know who will win the 2020 presidential election. It will either be Trump or the candidate of the Democratic Party, depending on the mood of America on that day. Plug in any one of the declared D candidates, and the result will be the same.
I don’t think this means we shouldn’t have a primary. If one of these people is going to have a good chance to become president, then they should earn it. The primary itself should help to generate voter enthusiasm, and it will make any candidate who wins a better candidate.
I have my preferred candidate (Elizabeth Warren), for whom I will vote in the Tennessee Democratic Primary, unless something changes significantly between now and then (e. g. my candidate drops out or, a new candidate emerges that I like better, or I just change my mind as I listen to debates).
What I don’t want to hear is that candidate A has a better (or worse) chance to beat Trump. I don’t think any hypothetical head-to-head poll taken now can predict reliably what will happen in November 2020. I don’t think which candidate’s name is in the D slot next to Trump’s changes anybody’s vote.
I think we can win. I think my candidate can win, and I think yours can too. But they can also all lose. So, I will not talk about whether my candidate has a better chance to win. I think my candidate has the best ideas for running the country, but I don’t think that gives her a better chance to win. It just means she will run the country better if she does.
Cue supporters of ________ telling me how much money he has raised in the last hour.