Two years ago, on May 19, 2017, the Cook Political Report estimated that only 37 Republican House seats were at all vulnerable — all the rest were considered completely Safe Republican. By October 30, 2018, the number of vulnerable Republican seats had swelled to 100, and Cook listed 45 Republican seats that were Toss-Ups or likely to go Democratic. Despite gerrymandering and severe voter suppression, Democrats actually flipped 40 seats in November 2018 (with NC-09 still to be determined) and retook control of the House.
Looking ahead at the 2020 Senate races, at least one of the three independent analyst organizations currently lists 12 Republican Senate seats as possibly vulnerable (not Safe Republican):
- Arizona - Martha McSally
- Colorado - Cory Gardner
- Maine - Susan Collins
- Georgia - David Perdue
- North Carolina - Thom Tillis
- Kentucky - Mitch McConnell
- Kansas - Pat Roberts (retiring)
- Mississippi - Cindy Hyde-Smith
- Tennessee - Lamar Alexander (retiring)
- Iowa - Joni Ernst
- Montana - Steve Daines
- Texas - John Cornyn
Conservative Washington Post columnist Jennifer Rubin says, in The Republican Senate’s 2020 problem that
… you can easily get to half a dozen possible Democratic pickups. ...
And DailyKos is fundraising for 7 of these seats right now: Arizona, Colorado, Maine, Georgia, North Carolina, Kentucky, and Iowa.
In addition to these 12 seats, there are another 10 Republican seats up for election that are now considered Safe. A good Democratic candidate and an empowered Democratic base could at least give them a scare. And remember, there were only 37 Republican House seats considered vulnerable two years ago — and we won 40 seats.
The situation will likely get worse for Republicans over the next two years as revelations about Trump’s traitorous Russian-Putin connection dominate the news, his money-laundering and other financial grifting come to light, and talk of impeachment grows (or is actually carried out). Despite Trump violating the public trust almost daily and in dozens of ways, Senate Republicans have protected him with barely a peep of objection and their shameless complicity has been quite glaring.
In contrast, the progressive movement is as broad, deep, and mobilized as it has been since at least the 1960s (if not the 1930s). After 40 years of domination by Right-wing Republicans and corporate/centrist Democrats, this movement is demanding radical change to end discrimination, harassment, and assault against vulnerable groups (women, people of color, LGBTQ, immigrants, etc.), address the dire threat of climate change, stop gun carnage, reform the penal system, reduce wealth and income inequality, end corrupt pay-to-pay politics, and ensure everyone has healthcare and can live a decent life. Democratic Party officials are now more progressive than they have been in decades and the House is firmly in Democratic hands. If Democrats can win the presidency and a majority of the Senate, then we can begin to undo the damage.
But if Democrats can go further and win a filibuster-proof total of 60 seats in the Senate as well as the presidency, then it may be possible to bring about deep and truly significant transformation of our society: build on the New Deal and the Great Society (first up: increase minimum wage to a living wage, enact paid family leave, provide universal healthcare, institute police oversight) and undo the privatization and corruption that Republicans have implemented over the past 40 years. With control of the Presidency, Senate, and House, we can appoint judges who respect the law (instead of Right-wing hacks), end voting barriers, reduce the toxic influence of money on our elections, and restore one-person-one-vote governance. We can create a well-regulated economy that protects workers, consumers, and the environment, reduces the power of mega-corporations and corporate media, and restores the balance between ordinary Americans and the rich. We can re-establish strong diplomatic relations with our allies, challenge dictatorial and oppressive regimes, and end our misguided wars.
To get a 60-vote supermajority in the Senate will require flipping 13 Republican seats while not losing any of the Democratic seats. Given the strong rural nature of a majority of Senate seats (with a majority of progressives/Democrats concentrated in just a dozen states), this is a very tough goal. But it is certainly one worth working long and hard for. We took on the challenge of flipping the House in 2018 and won big. It is possible we can again achieve another extremely valuable accomplishment in 2020 — it is at least in the realm of possibility.
The more that we believe we can achieve this goal, the more likely it is that people will feel empowered to work for it and will mobilize to do the hard work required. The more people who actually work for it, the more likely that we will actually achieve it. And the more likely we are to achieve it, the more likely that Republican Senators will decide that now is a good time to retire, which would make it much easier for us to win. So, in addition to winning the presidency, let’s aim at winning a super-majority in the Senate in 2020: get out your credit cards, charge up your cellphones, and put on your walking shoes. We have work to do.