I’m not sure how to say this without coming off as paranoid conspiracy theorist. I don’t subscribe to conspiracies, and I don’t think everything is doomed. I just think it’s important to explore all possible outcomes, and be prepared for worst case scenarios. FWIW, I sincerely hope this is completely off base, but here goes:
The Democratic nominee may be called upon to act as the leader of the opposition after election day, 2020. By that, I mean that there is a non-trivial chance that after the 2020 election, the Democratic nominee is announced as the winner, but Trump declares that the election was rigged, and so he will stay as President beyond January 20, 2021. In a true ratfucking tradition, evidence may even be “revealed” to show the the Russians hacked the election on behalf of Democrats.
If that happens, there will obviously be chaos. It cannot be assumed that all sane people will automatically reject this power grab. Trump could easily send out a few tweets saying it’s time for good Americans to exercise their Second Amendment rights, and the militias would gladly leap to his defense. The Republicans in the Senate may not embrace Trump, but they are unlikely to oppose him either. We don’t know what the Intelligence community or the Pentagon will do, but they are unlikely to decisively step in to stop Trump without civilian leadership they can support. The courts will be no help at all.
There are several pieces of evidence which, taken each in turn don't mean much, but together suggest that it's at least possible that Trump may try to declare the 2020 election rigged and that he will stay in office.
1. In 2016, Trump noisily refused to agree to accept the election results if they did not go his way.
https://www.nytimes.com/.../poli.../presidential-debate.html
2. Michael Cohen gave sworn testimony that he believed Trump will not leave office voluntarily.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmYxWTlVIpE
3. We know from the US Intelligence Community, as well as the Mueller Report, that Russians and other potential bad actors attempted to influence the 2016 election, and are actively working to disrupt the 2020 election as well.
5. Trump is aware that Democrats will continue investigations into his business operations, and that there is a high likelihood that criminal wrongdoing will be uncovered. There is an incentive for Trump to stay in office, as long as he knows that he has immunity as president.
None of this guarantees anything. It may be the work of a fevered imagination. But I think it's important to consider that it could happen. Let’s say it’s just a 1% chance of happening. .1% even. But the consequences are so dire, that I think all Americans must consider the possibility, and have a contingency plan in place if it does happen.
And one factor that seems inescapable is that the Democratic nominee is going to be thrust into a position that no one should have to assume, but may require leadership and decisiveness to handle the chaos of what happens in the 78 days between November 3, 2020, and January 20, 2021. The thing I fear is a nominee who thinks that filing a lawsuit will accomplish anything. I am a firm believer in the rule of law, but I recognize when it is unable to address moments of crisis. Trump will act quickly to try and consolidate power, counting on support by Republicans and for other power bases to stay on the sideline. It will be critical that the Democratic nominee can step up to rally and consolidate all bases of power to stop him in a matter of days if this happens.
And just to close with where I started — even discussing this stuff feels ridiculous, paranoid, and awful. I recognize how it comes across. But I can't help thinking that, even as it sounds like madness, the alternative of silence is even worse. I will be the first to celebrate if there is a peaceful transfer of power on January 20, 2021. But even so, a crisis is something we must be prepared for.
Having said all that, which candidate could best take on this role? Which candidate would be a disaster?