There are literally dozens of plausible stories for who launched the attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure. Yemenis have claimed responsibility. Ok. They have ample motives. Maybe not the means. They have a solid partner in Iran, who has both motive AND means…
Iran recently suffered a humiliating setback in its space program when a launch rocket with a satellite payload exploded on the launch pad.
TRump was very quick to goad Tehran with an exceedingly crisp satellite photo and a too-cute by half taunt that “we had nothing to do with the explosion.”
Well, wouldn’t the attack on Saudi oil infrastructure be a proportional response?
And to consider another angle, wouldn’t an attack of this nature have required serious planning and communications between the Yemenis and Iran? Did nobody notice the preparations for the attacks, even after the tanker drone attacks, and the ridiculous sharpness of our satellite images? Was there no “chatter” to intercept between the dozens or hundreds of people who would have had to coordinate the attacks between two two of the most closely watched countries in the world?
There are several important concerns that stand to benefit from this attack:
MbS’s enemies in Saudi Arabia. He failed to maintain security in the Kingdom.
Iran. They possibly sent a clear message that military actions against them would almost certainly come at the cost of global economic stability.
The Houthis in Yemen. Project power outside of Yemen into the depths of Saudi Arabia. Very dangerous game, though. Is MbS smart enough to realize he has to choose between devoting his military to the political damage in Yemen, or to the real threat from Iran?
Trump THINKS he gets probable cause to bomb Iran. Actually a real loser of a takeaway, but it’s the one he wants, so he claims a win. We’ll throw in Netanyahu for all the same reasons.
And Russia. With suspected ties to Iran; no pushback against its international fuckery campaigns; and pushing hard to put Europe under the spell of dependency on Russia’s energy supplies…
Russia could benefit greatly from disruption of Saudi oil and a price spike as Europe heads towards the winter months.
But to return to the original premise of this diary: what if Iran participated in this attack, but primarily as a message that they can enact consequences regionally that will cause considerable damage globally, and can do do proportionally and successfully?
Is anyone in the White House even capable of such analysis, or are we doomed to a Constitutional Crisis at MbS’s request when Trump tries to bypass Congress to bomb Iran to help a dictator?
How badly is the USA going to get used before we can rid ourselves of the ignoramus-in-Chief?