A lot of the objections (or perhaps more accurately, trepidation) regarding impeachment have revolved around the question of whether or not the Senate would try, convict, and ultimately help remove President Trump from office. The argument goes a little something like this: Senate Republicans, fearing Trump’s base, will never convict Trump of anything, ever, and/or McConnell would kill it dead, thus giving Trump an “exoneration” to trumpet everywhere, while firing up his base to vote in 2020, handing weapons to vulnerable downticket GOP candidates, and so on, and so forth.
Bottom line: Impeachment is dangerous, because it might backfire.
But looking at the situation as it stands, and as it appears to be developing, I can see a path forward for the Republicans that easily includes conviction and removal. After all, they’re looking at the same polling we are. They know Trump’s support is cratering, minus his rabid base. They know any winner of the Democratic Primary starts with a sizeable lead that seems all but baked in, and — depending on how badly it goes for Trump in the House — likely to widen.
So perhaps the path forward for Senate Republicans (and the GOP in general) is a little different than the impeachment-cautious crowd fears. This path goes a little more like: Trump’s base are credulous, cultish loyalists who will believe anything, no matter how farfetched, as long as libturdz and Dumbocrats are to blame. Senate Republicans bemoan the dirty tricks and inescapable machinations of the Democrat Witch Hunt™, crying that their hands are tied, or forced, or whatever is being done to their hands that results in votes in the Senate to try, convict, and remove Trump from office.
The cognitive dissonance of watching Republicans help remove their orange messiah from office, while believing them blameless, and reinforcing their hatred of Democrats, is well within the deranged mindset of the Trump zealots. There is zero doubt in my mind Republicans can sell them on the idea that it’s all the Democrats’ fault, minimizing (if not eliminating) electoral consequences, and in fact energizing an enraged base to turn out for anyone without a (D) after their name.
Meanwhile, the GOP rids themselves of the psychotic, still-flailing albatross around their necks, and they rally around a saner, less-prone-to-incriminate-himself version of Trump, who offers the furious base all the bigotry, fascism, and lib-pwning they know and love, but in a package more palatable to mainstream (*cough* white *cough*) American sensibilities. Trump 2.0 hits the campaign trail, spewing fire and brimstone about the evil Democrats pitching a galaxy-class hissy fit over losing the totally legit election of 2016, Trump Derangement Syndrome, build that wall as a memorial, fear brown children, myuh, myuh, myuh, and as always, the Democrats and the libs are simultaneously fragile, whimpering, beta cuck snowflakes, yet all-powerfully menacing, and seconds away from breaking down your door to seize your guns and your daughters, and force the latter to gay-marry an Islamic transgendered Mexican wedding cake in the wrong bathroom.
Honestly, at the rate Trump is imploding, it may be their only path to the White House in 2020 — assuming Democrats don’t screw up the impeachment proceedings, which is not outside the realm of possibility. I suspect that, if all goes well with impeachment, this is the narrative/contingency we should prepare for. At the very least, I think it’s a likely-as-not outcome of slam-dunk Articles sent to the Senate.
Just my 2¢.