The moment Boris Johnson loses his majority in the UK Parliament: Dr Philip Lee, MP, votes with his feet, underscoring that he will no longer support Johnson’s No-Deal Brexit strategy. Another 21 MPs, many of them former Cabinet Ministers, have been “stripped of the whip” (essentially expelled from the Conservative Party, while retaining their seats in Parliament) for trying to avert a No-Deal.
Last night, Boris Johnson became historic: He became the first Prime Minister of the United Kingdom to lose his very first vote in Parliament. In his excellent diary, ColoradoBlue tells the story of how this happened thanks to the rebels in the Conservative Party who vehemently disagree with the extreme course Johnson is charting. The diarist calls for America’s Republican Politicians to show similar bravery.
But back to Brexit…
While some suggest that the fever has broken, I believe it is far too early for celebrations. While Boris Johnson has lost a battle (which he expected to lose), there is no indication yet that he has lost the war – quite the contrary.
Legislation passed by Parliament today can be undone in an hour – if Boris Johnson wins a parliamentary majority in the snap election he expects.
In short: Boris Johnson and his chief strategist Dominic Cummings are trying to:
- Run out the clock, leaving the EU on 31 October
- Force a snap Parliamentary Election
- Purge the Conservative Party of all but hard Brexiteers
- Frame the election as “People vs Politicians”…
- …with his cleansed Conservative Party taking the side of “the People”
Moreover, as Tony Blair has warned, Johnson is also laying a trap for Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn, whose polling numbers are abysmal. With Corbyn refusing to have Labour take a clear Remain stance, the party performed very poorly in the recent EU Parliamentary elections. The latest poll aggregate numbers from Britain Elects are:
CON: 35%
LAB: 25%
LDEM: 16%
BREX: 11%
GRN: 7%
UKIP: 1%
Note that at present: Tories + BrexitParty > Labour + LibDems
Nigel Farage and his Brexit Party is already promising cooperation in a general election – provided Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party insists on a No-Deal Brexit.
Labour’s numbers would improve if Corbyn clearly announced that Labour is a Remain party. Tragically, Corbyn is unwilling to do that.
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In these circumstances, it might well be political suicide for Labour to allow the snap election proposed by Boris Johnson.
Political analyst Robert Peston suggests another strategy for Labour:
[Jeremy Corbyn] could insist that no election will be permitted till Johnson has attempted what the PM insists is eminently possible, namely negotiating with the EU those famously elusive alternative arrangements that would see the backstop removed from May’s Brexit deal.
Corbyn will be aware that the spectacle of Johnson begging EU leaders for a Brexit deal would see Johnson humiliated and the Tory party losing yet more support to the Brexit party.
There would be costs to Labour from keeping Johnson dangling, because both main parties have suffered ebbing support for their respective failures to either deliver Brexit or revoke it. But the costs to the Tories would be worse.
Johnson doesn’t have the numbers to do anything, yet it may not be in Corbyn’s and Labour’s interest to put him and us out of our misery.
Will Boris Johnson be able to move on to the battle that he really craves: an election? Or will Jeremy Corbyn suddenly act more wisely than he has, denying Johnson that satisfaction – and exploiting the alliance that have now emerged to save the UK from a No-Deal Brexit?
The next few historic days and hours will give us the answer.
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Suggested further reading:
The Guardian’s live blog
Robert Peston, Twitter
Faisal Islam, Twitter
BBC live blog