Hello, my name is Evan Hunt and I am a 14-year-old political analyst. Today I will be analyzing the contentious North Carolina Special Congressional Election in the 9th District. The seat became a special after it became apparent that affiliates of the 2018 Republican candidate Mark Harris tampered with ballots, thus the State declared a new Election.
This time around Democrats have put up 2018 nominee and veteran Dan McCready, while Republicans nominated State Sen. Dan Bishop. This is the battle of the Dans.
Today I will be focusing on how each side can win, with the numbers. If you enjoy what you see please consider following me on Twitter at @Pollsterking1.
In the 9th District, there are three sections. The Charlotte suburbs, the Fayetteville suburbs, and the rural minority-heavy eastern portion. The first of the three comprise most of the electorate.
The district starts right outside of heavily liberal Charlotte and carves out the more Conservative suburbs of Charlotte in Mecklenberg County. Then the seat moves into heavily Republican Union County, which is more exurban than Mecklenberg. Union is rock-ribbed Republican and is not shifting to the left. Then you have the sandhill Counties which are heavily African-American, and very tiny in the electorate. Then Robeson County which contains the swingy electorate of the Lumbee tribe. Finally, the seat takes in a small chunk of the swingy Fayetteville suburbs, and into rural white Bladen County.
Districts History
The seat was drawn by Republicans to capture enough suburban republicans outside of Charlotte to offsize the more liberal eastern portion. This held up very well, with the only 2016 Democrat to carry it was Michael Morgan in the State Supreme Court race, which was technically non-partisan. Morgan also won very narrowly in the seat, carryng it by less than half a point. The eastern portion was moving hard to the right, with Trump winning historically heavy-dem Robeson. Robeson also has a large chunk of the Districts vote. Bladen and Richmond also went heavily Republican, and the suburbs stuck with Trump. This caused Trump to win the seat 54-43. This was practically identical to Romneys 55-44 win here, and a slight uptick from McCains 54-45 win. Trump lost some ground from Romney in the suburbs but performed better out east.
This held up well for Republican Robert Pittenger, who had no trouble winning re-election. In 2016 Pittenger lambasted Democratic opponent Christian Cano, winning 58-42. Pittenger lost Robeson, but perfomred better than Trump in the suburbs.
Pittenger would win big until 2018 when pastor Mark Harris narrowly dispatched him in the Republican primary. Harris’s 49-46 win was an upset, and sent shivers to Republicans. McCready mopped the floor with Cano in the Democratic primary, lambasting Cano 83-17. Republicans were not happy when a Civitas poll during the summer of 2018 found McCready beating Harris by 4 points, and Harris’s work as a pastor started to come under scrutiny for homophobia and sexism. Many thought McCready was favored if anything. Then Election night came, and Harris won by a hair. McCready improved heavily upon Cano out east, flipping Cumberland and Richmond, and performing very well in Robeson. However what helped McCready was Mecklenberg, which flipped to the Dems 54-44. This showed the height of suburban voters flocking to Dems. Despite this Union held big for Harris with him winning 59-39 in Union, and Harris winning Bladen 58-41. This margin was seen as odd considering McCready's well performance in the rest of the seat.
It came out then that Harris cheated with ballot harvesting in Bladen County, and it was seen in the 0.4% difference race this could have made the difference. Hence a new Election was called.
Mecklenberg County (Home to Democratic Growth and Dan Bishop)
Toplines
50-47 Trump
58-42 Pittenger (2016)
54-44 McCready
Mecklenberg County used to be a marginal County, with not even Republican Charlotte Mayor Pat McCory (yes FUTURE GOVERNOR McCory!) leaving office less than 12 years ago. The city of Charlotte (which has a high minority population) has kept Mecklenberg in the D column in recent memory with exceptions (McCory carried the County in his 2012 Governor run), however, the suburbs of Charlotte used to be a sea of dark red. Rep. Sue Myrick represented the Mecklenberg Charlotte suburbs and Robert Pittenger kept winning after Myrick. The County was certainly palatable to Republicans serving in local office, with Huntersville anchoring the Republican north, and Matthews anchoring the Republican south.
After 2018 in the suburban blue wave however Democrats took every state house seat and every County Commissioner seat in the County. The last blow of the 2018 night was when Former Governor Jim Hunts daughter Rachel Hunt unseated Republican Incumbent State Rep. Bill Brawley in the County’s southeast end. The only Republican to beat the flight of suburban Mecklenberg voters leaving the Gop...Dan Bishop.
The same night McCready was trouncing in Mecklenberg, State Sen. Dan Bishop was winning re-election 53-47 in his NC-09 overlapping State Senate seat. Bishop’s State Senate voted for Trump 50-47. The NC-09 Mecklenberg portion voted for Trump 50-47. In 2018 McCready carried Bishops State Senate seat by around 10%. In the end Bishop underperformed McCready by around 7% in 2018.
A big question will be who Bishop->McCready voters fling to. This crucial block is more essential to McCready than Bishop, as well as this County. McCready needs Mecklenberg to win, and he can’t do much worse than 2018. In my analysis I say McCready must win Mecklenberg by 7% to have a real shot, and 5% to at least be viable. Now the suburbs still are no fans of Trump.
McCready must hold down Bishop in Mint hill to at least a 15% win, and hold him to a 5% win in Matthews. Matthews only went to Harris by around a point, so there is a chance McCready could carry it on Tuesday, which would solidify his lock on the County, and probably make him the NC-09 winner. However McCreadys Mecklenberg strategy lies in winning precincts closer to Charlotte.
In 2018 McCready carried historical Republican towns like Foxcroft and Carmel Woods. These towns are still Republican, Carmel Woods voting for Republican Sen. Richard Burr 63-35, and even in the Attorney General race where Democrat Josh Stein prevailed statewide, lost Carmel Woods 60-40. Clinton lost 51-43 in the town, but McCready won Carmel Woods 51-48 and Foxcroft 54-45 last year. He also needs to win big in towns that favored him big in 2018 such as Carmel, a 52-41 Clinton 52-45 Burr town where McCready won 61-37 last year.
How McCready can win Mecklenberg?
As you can see even though right-wingers such as Trump and Harris struggle in the Charlotte suburbs, more traditonal Republicans such as Burr and Lt. Governor Dan Forest still do well, even in the more liberal towns such as Carmel. The two biggest centers (Matthews and Mint Hill) are still Republican, with Mint Hill being nearly impossible for a Democrat to win. McCready must hold down the margins in these towns (maybe even winning Matthews), but his bigger strategy is winning the remaining areas, particulary closer to Charlotte. These towns are the reason why Harris lost Mecklenberg County in 2018, and with Bishop being a more establishment Republican and hailing from Mecklenberg McCready could see a slight decline. If that happens depending on the loss or gain, it can tell us a lot.
Mecklenberg is also the largest County in NC-09 with votes cast, but not too far ahead of Union.
County rating: Lean McCready (D)
Union County (Democrats Roadblock)
Toplines
63-33 Trump
68-32 Pittenger (2016)
59-39 Harris
In 2018 Mark Harris won NC-09 by 905 votes. In Union County alone Mark Harris netted 17,519 votes. Even though Bladen County is why a new Election is being held, the real D roadblock is Union County. Union County is the outer exurbs of Charlotte. Like some suburbs such as the Milwaukee suburbs, Union County has barely been seeing the suburban realignment as some other metro areas such as its neighbor. Union County has always been firmly in the R column. Republicans typically score in the mid 60’s in Union.
Another thing about Union is how little diversity there is in election outcomes. McCready and Obama carried the exact same precincts. The margins are also usually the same with Republicans rarely exceeding 70%, or dipping under 60%. When Mark Harris surfaced with 59%, that was considered bad for a Republican in Union. There is a simple reason to this: demographic groups.
Union County is home to three liberal areas, the cities of Monroe, Wingate and Marshville. The latter is smaller, but all three are not huge. Monroe which is the County Seat is positioned in the Counties center, Wingate right to the right of it, with Marshville to the right of Wingate. The city of Monroe is roughly 60% white, Wingate is roughly 60% white, and Marshville is 48% white. While Marshville is the only town majority-minority, all three have relatively high minority populations, consiering the rest of Union County.
McCready cannot realistically carry Union County, it is the thorn in every North Carolina Democrats toe. However McCready can cut Bishops margins in Union. McCready must win the three liberal cities big. Clearing 70% in the three areas is a viable goal, and a goal that may have to be reached considering the Counties lean. Now state Attorney General Josh Stein received 69% in the liberal precincts in the cities combined.
Outside of Marshville, eastern Union County is very brutal for Democrats, with Republicans even reaching the mid 80’s in some precincts. One interesting note about eastern Union County is that eastern Union was Bishops more conservative primary opponent (Union County Commisioner Stony Rushing’s) stomping ground. Bishop carried Union thanks to his wins on the more popolous western end, but in the more rural east the uber-conservative Rushing won. With Bishop being more establishment there may be a small amount of fatigue, and if we see fatigue then eastern Union is possibly the area we will see that happen. There may be a very small drop-off of votes from disenfranchised conservatives who perceive Bishop as a Charlotte establishment figure. The drop-off will be small if it happens at all, but this drop-off could be the drop-off that makes Bishop lose.
Western Union is not as brutal for Democrats as the eastern portion of the County, but still Republican leaning. It comprises of heavily white suburbs, however relatively inelastic compared to most other suburbs. McCready won one precinct on the western end (right outside of Wesley Chapel), and that could be attributed to slightly more minorites than the rest of the County.
The large suburb of Indian Trail saw Harris win the city, but not by a large margin, shoring up wins in the low 50’s in some precincts. The precincts on the Union-Mecklenberg border overall were closer than the Countys margin. This is likely because the suburban shift of Mecklenberg is slwoly trickling into western Union.
How McCready can win Union?
It’s very difficlut if not possible for McCready to carry Union County. However it is not inevitable to cut Bishop under 60%, and here is how summed up. He should try to clear 70% in Union in the three liberal centers of the County, which is not an impossible task. Then he should try to hold Bishop down under 80% in eastern Union County. Lastly he should try to hold down Bishop in western Union, and maybe even carry some precincts in the Indian Trail area. Union County is the center of Republicanism in North Carolina, and it is not seeing leftward trends. One day the County could be close, but for now it is simply too Republican. However Democrats should still try to play in the County.
Mecklenberg and Union are the two biggest vote producers in the district, but the eastern portion will also be very important. The eastern portion houses some registered Democrats who vote Republican (similar to areas such as eastern Kentucky and West Virginia). McCready performed very well out east in 2018, but can he replicate that in 2019?
Anson and Scotland- The Liberal Sandhill County Twins
Toplines for Anson
56-43 Clinton
56-44 Cano (2016)
58-41 McCready
Toplines for Scotland
53-45 Clinton
55-45 Cano (2016)
56-42 McCready
I put Anson and Scotland together for the simple reason they both have high minority popuplations and are both solidly liberal, and like Union have very little elasticity.
Furthermore they are not important in this Election when it comes to margins. McCready will likely win due to the “cities” and high minority populations. Combined the two Counties have a 45-43 white/African-American spread, however when combining other races it becomes a majority-minoirty section.
McCready will likely get around what he did in 2018, however it’s the numbers that count. McCready needs high turnout in these Counties as they rarely cast a large share of the vote, casting 6.9% of the total vote in the 2016 Senate Election in the 9th District according to political analyst Niles Francis.
McCready will want to net as many votes as possible, and with Dorian affecting early voting he could see turnout trouble here. He should work to get people to the polls tomorww in these two Counties. If these two Counties could cast 8% of the total vote, that could help McCready and net him some votes.
How McCready can carry Anson and Scotland Counties?
He will, and probably by around double digits. Republican North Carolina Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler lost both Counties by at least 8% despite winning statewide by double digits. The only way these Counties could be close, is...oh wait they can’t! Bishop can maybe make it close if he gets turnout high and red in the few red specks in the Counties.
County rating: Safe McCready (D)
Robeson County- Home to the Lumbee
Toplines
51-47 Trump
52-48 Cano (2016)
56-41 McCready
Robeson County is typically very liberal. It is centered right on the South Carolina border, and houses many minority voters like it’s neighbors. The reason why is because of the Lumbee tribe. The Lumbee tribe historically held off KKK protesters back in the 20th century. The tribe has supplied Democrats their votes, however they have trended socially conservative. For example in 2012 Robeson Country strongly supported amendment 1 (that stated marriage between one man and one woman is the only domestic legal union that shall be valid or recognized in this State).
Even in 2012 when Pat McCory was carrying Wake (Raleigh) and Mecklenberg County, he lost Robeson 60-38 to at the time Lt. Governor Walter Dalton. Every Democrat in 2012 carried Robeson County. While eastern Robeson (that has more white voters) voted Republican that year, the west cancelled them out. In 2014 Kay Hagan kept up the blue streak, carrying Robeson 53-43, despite losing statewide (albeit narrowly).
In 2016 however things changed. The Lumbee liked Trumps rhetoric and supported him. This caused Robeson to vote for Trump by around 4%, which also caused Robeson to vote to the right of the state. Robeson also went to McCory and shifted 29 points to the right from the 2012 Governor race. Sen. Burr also carried the County, but that was it. Every row office Democrat besides Roy Cooper carried the County, even Steve Troxler lost the County 56-44. Furthermore Rep. Pittenger lost the County. Democrats overall carried the County in 2016 more than Republicans, but the County went red in the higher up races.
In the end, Lumbee-majority precincts voted for Obama in 2008 59-39, Trump 56-40, McCory in 2016 60-39, 54-44 Burr. However, the precincts voted Democrat 50-48 in the Lt. Governor race and 55.5-44.5 Democrat in the Attorney General race.
In 2018 thing got better for Democrats as Democratic State Rep. Charles Graham easily won another term in the western side of the County, Democratic DA Matt Jones took the cake to another term, Robeson voted Dem for every Judicial race, and Democrats won every Countywide race unopposed. They also won a majority of County Commision seats. Robeson still has plenty of downballot Democratic strength.
McCready took the County by a bigger margin than Scotland County, landlsiding in the west, and holding Harris down out east. He outperformed many 2016 Democrats with his 56-41 win, only doing worse than Secretary of State Elaine Marshall who won 61-38, and did very well across the state. This has convinced Democrats that Robeson is still in their column, but it was not all great for Democrats in 2018.
Republican State Rep. Brenden Jones easily cruised to re-election in the eastern side, GOP State Sen. Danny Earl Britt Jr. won the County in it’s whole 62-38, and Republicans did retain a County Commisioner seat, and held it by a heavily bigger margin than 2014. The seat is also centered around northern Robeson, which is not very Conservative and more swingy.
How McCready can win Robeson County?
McCready is heavily favored to win Robeson on Tuesday due to the Lumbee still liking him and the County does have a relatively-high African-American population. This should give McCready at least a 8% win here on Tuesday. However he may need more than 8%. McCReady should aim for his 2018 margin here, which was 15%. In order to replicate that he will need strong margins in the Lumbee areas, very strong margins in African-American areas, and try to pick up as many blue dog southern white Democrats as possible. He should aim to win the city of Lumberton with 75% of the vote if not higher. He can spare a loss out east of Lumberton, but he must hold down Lumberton (heavily African-American) and the west to win big in Robeson and put him up in contention in NC-09. McCready is a heavy favorite.
County rating: Likely McCready (D)
Cumberland County- Inelastic Fayetteville Suburbs
Toplines
49-48 Trump
51-49 Pittenger (2018)
51-47 McCready
While the seat hinges on the Charlotte suburbs, Fayettevilles southern suburbs are also in the seat. The seat gets a few liberal precicnts right outside of Fayetteville, before going south in Cumberland County to capture some heavily Republican precincts. This causes very close election outcomes in the seat, even if the overall margin of the race is different. For instance Pittenger won by 16 points districtwide, but only by 2 points in Cumberland. McCready came 0.4% of winning the seat, but only carried Cumberland by 4 points.
Cumberland does cast a sizable portion of the Districts vote, casting 10.2% of the total vote in the 2016 Senate Election in NC-09, according to Francis.
Cumberland however is an important County. A canddiate can still net votes from the County, and each candidate will need all the votes they can get in this race.
Cumberland is a very liberal County, but the city of Fayetteville was carved into the 8th to ensure the 9th stayed red, and the 8th is too red for even Fayetteville to stop it.
Harris kept the County in contention by doing well in the south by winning heavily Republican towns such as Stedman, while McCready took the immediate outskirts of Fayetteville.
How McCready win Cumberland County?
Cumberland County is a must-win for McCready as he must withstand the power of Union County. He must push minority turnout, and try to win suburban voters who disapprove of Trump. Bishop is more establishment than Harris which could help him here, but he starts off with little name recognition in Cumberland. Cumberland is also where Trumps rally is, but that could just galvanize liberals in this suburban County that dislikes Trump. McCready needs to replicate his strategy at winning areas right outside of Fayetteville, and hold down Bishops margins down south.
County Rating: Tilt D
Richmond and Bladen County- Home of the Blue-Dog Democrat
Toplines for Richmond County
54-44 Trump
54-46 Pittenger (2016)
50-48 McCready
Toplines for Bladen County
60-39 Trump
58-42 Pittenger (2016)
58-41 Harris
I end off with Richmond and Bladen because they cast a relatively low vote share, but are two Counties that could be bellweathers. Both Counties are trending to the right but hold blue DNA. NC-09 only holds the more white west end of Bladen, but contains all of Richmond.
These counties contain many white moderates who have become no fans of the Democrats in recent years, however they don’t bother to change their voter registration. They still vote Dem time to time, for instance Richmond County elected a Democratic State Representative and is the home turf of North Carolina Democratic Chairman Wayne Goodwin. Bladen County still has a Democratic County Commision and voted for some Democrats in 2016. SOS Marshall won Bladen 56-44 Countywide, but NC-09 carved out the African-American heavy eastern end, instead feeding it to ruby-red NC-07.
Richmond casts a larger share of the vote than Bladen in NC-09. Democrats still win big in Rockingham and Hoffman, but struggle elsewhere. Northern Richmond has trended hard to the right, and thus makes Richmond trend to the right usually. McCready narrowly won Richmond due to him doing well in the two towns and carrying southern Richmond. However McCready failed to win northern Richmond, but he did hold Harris down. Richmond is not a must-win County for either candidate, but it would net the winning candidate some votes. This County could very well be the closest County in the race tomoroww and could be a great bellweather, however expect it to trend a point or two to the left of the District.
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Bladen County was carefully drawn to just take in the redder west, and thus the section of Bladen leans to the right of the County substantially. For instance in the 2016 Attorney General race Josh Stein won 52-48 Countywide, but lost the NC-09 section 53-47. However in 2018 Mark Harris did very well in Bladen County, a little “too well”. Bladen County is why a new Election was called, due to ballot tampering. Due to this it is difficult how Tuesday will play out, but Bladen is not a kingmaker in the seat. Harris netted 1,548 votes from the County, and to put it into perspective won by 905 votes overall. So the ballot tampering could have made the difference. Bladen will likely see a trend to the left due to the election being run fair this time. McCreadys goal should be to get around Steins margin, or try to make Bishop not win by double digits.
How can McCready win Richmond and Bladen Counties?
Richmond will be closer than Bladen most likely. There is a higher minority population and more large towns. If McCready wants to win Richmond he must turn out minority voters in high groves, and try to pick off as many blue dogs as possible. He must also boon turnout in Rockingham and Hoffman.
Bladen is tough for McCready. African-Americans comprise roughly 30% of the precincts in the Bladen portion of NC-09, so winning them in droves is essential for performing well in the County. He must also pick off as many Democrats in Name Only as possible. With a coalition of conservative Democrats and minorites he can make Bladen close, maybe win it.
County rating:
Richmond: Toss-up
Bladen: Likely R
In the end the Election will be close. The election is certaintly a toss-up. McCready has amassed a huge following and has the full backing of the Lumbee tribe, as well as many Democrats, Independents, and even some Republicans. This district shows the strength of Democrats in the suburbs and rural areas. Don’t make assumptions of 2020 off Tuesdays outcome, especially nationally. Credit to Daves Redistricting atlas for the demographic data, the NCSBE for the precinct results. I crafted the Mecklenberg County map myself, but a big thanks to NCSBE for easy results.