Amy Comey Barrett is the greatest threat to American health and welfare since Donald Trump. Worst case, she may far exceed his destructive legacy, since she may be the decisive vote on two decisions that could devastate tens of millions of Americans: repeal of the ACA and repeal of Rowe vs Wade.
Millions of people who get their health insurance through ACA will be cast adrift.
More than 20 million Americans have gotten health insurance coverage as a result of the ACA.
That includes around 12 million people who became newly eligible through an expansion of Medicaid to low-income adults, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation. Thirty-four states and the District of Columbia adopted the expansion.
Another 11 million got insurance through new marketplaces where individuals could buy health plans. (CNBC, Sept 25, 2020)
People who have private health insurance would be hurt because ACA protects them from the worst impulses of their current insurers:
... many of the insurance protections in the law also protect those who have insurance through their jobs. These provisions include allowing adult children to stay on their parents’ health plans and requiring that insurers cover people who have preexisting health conditions at no additional charge to those patients. The law also requires that ACA-compliant policies provide preventive care with no out-of-pocket cost, and bans annual and lifetime insurance coverage limits.
It also limits insurers’ amounts of profit and administrative expenses. That makes for a lot of chaos right there should the entire law disappear. But there is more. (from Kaiser Health News, Dec 2019)
Finally, the entire healthcare industry and structure would be upended or disrupted:
“Billions of dollars of private and public investment ― impacting every corner of the American health system ― have been made based on the existence of the ACA,” said a brief filed by a bipartisan group of health policy experts. Declaring the law null and void “would upend all of those settled expectations and throw healthcare markets, and 1/5 of the economy, into chaos,”
Bottom line is that millions of Americans will be hurt by the repeal. Many will find themselves hurt in ways they don’t imagine or expect. It will take time for the effects to sink in, but when they do, the rage of the 20 million will become the rage of the 60 or 80 million. Worse, the hits will come over an extended period. Every month, there will be new stories of obscenities and idiocies that are directly linked to the decision of 5 justices and the 51 Senators that confirmed this “decider”.
Repeal of Roe v Wade will create a second, smouldering backlash. Millions of women will discover a new fear … one they thought was eliminated 50 years ago. That fear may not create the immediate widespread pain and urgency that ACA repeal will cause, but the image of 5 conservative old white folks abandoning millions of young American women will fester and grow … and it will reinforce and amplify the anger over ACA.
Republicans facing re-election in this cycle have ample reason to be afraid, but they are already terrified by the Democrat money machine. So fast forward to Republican Senators that face reelection in 2022:
- Blunt, Roy, Mo.
- Boozman, John, Ark.
- Burr, Richard, N.C.
- Crapo, Mike, Idaho
- Grassley, Chuck, Iowa
- Hoeven, John, N.D.
- Johnson, Ron, Wis.
- Kennedy, John, La.
- Lankford, James, Okla.
- Lee, Mike, Utah
- Loeffler, Kelly, Ga. (hoping Warnock beats her in 2020)
- McSally, Martha, Ariz. (hoping Kelly beats her in 2020)
- Moran, Jerry, Kan.
- Murkowski, Lisa, Alaska
- Paul, Rand, Ky.
- Portman, Rob, Ohio
- Rubio, Marco, Fla.
- Scott, Tim, S.C.
- Shelby, Richard C., Ala.
- Thune, John, S.D.
- Toomey, Patrick J., Pa.
- Young, Todd, Ind.
I highlighted eight Senators in states that Biden might conceivably capture or where he might come close in 2020. We need to make especially these eight aware of the fate that looms ahead if they confirm Barrett. Here is my speculative picture of their potential jeopardy:
- I’m guessing that these Senators hope the rage against Republicans will fade after Trump is gone. They hope 2022 will be a typical off-year election where the new President’s honeymoon is over and the out-of-power party can sneak in some wins.
- So they vote to confirm ACB.
- Even before Nov 4, huge numbers of people are irate about the ACB choice and the disrespect of RBG. However, since Dems can’t take much more out on 2020 candidates, these 2022 cretins are the next logical target. PACs will form like the one that pre-funded opposition to Susan Collins, but with far bigger dollar amounts.
- Then ACB votes to repeal ACA.
- Money flows into the attack PACs like nothing ever seen. Pure, white-hot, revenge donations.
- The PACs launch steady Lincoln Project-type attacks on these 8 Senators … in their home states … immediately after ACB’s decision. Attacks are relentless and very personal. No Senatorial decorum. Photos of them cozying up to Trump and videos of their fawning support for ACB. Plus there’s plenty of time and money to do oppo research that is intense, targeted and brutal.
- As damage from ACA repeal becomes more evident, the money tsunami gets bigger and the ads more ruthless. Link their faces to interviews with dying patients and grieving relatives. Still truthful, but utterly merciless. Think $100M in a single state over 18 months.
- Next, ACB votes to repeal Roe v. Wade
- Any flagging energies are instantly rekindled, along with $40 or $60M in new PAC funding.
- Based on Jamie Harrison’s recent haul, these amounts could pour into each state.
These senators (and maybe one or three others) may feel so beat up that they bail and leave their state in the hands of a Trumpian derivative or non-entity that faces 10s of millions of dollars of prior counter ads and campaigning. Regardless, the personal fallout from the attack campaign will follow these ex-Senators for years to come.
In short, voting for ACB’s confirmation may guarantee that the righteous rage of non-Trumpians will endure long after Trump’s departure from the White House. Voting to confirm ACB could become the stake in the Republican heart.
I’m hoping that the Senate Dem leadership has already gamed this and spelled it out for each of the 2022 Republican senators … so they can sweat the looming personal cost of their vote.
Just my $0.0002