Why did Arizona match the positive polling for Democrats better than states like Florida? To understand this, one needs to realize that political polling does not measure whether or not America has a massive pandemic going on. Polls also do not measure if Donald Trump has a solid ground game in states like Florida and Joe Biden does not.
Polling has always been educated guess work. Any sample taken might be skewed in one direction or another. In addition, polling simply measures people’s opinions. It does not measure whether or not someone will actually get off his or her butt and go and vote. I have lived in Arizona for over fifty years. Please allow me to explain why Arizona performed better for Democrats than places like Florida.
Arizona Eventually Handled the Pandemic A lot Better than Florida Did
Because Arizona Republican Governor Doug Ducey eventually listened to the five Arizona Democratic mayors who begged him to allow the cities to implement things mask mandates, Arizona was able to cut COVID-19 infections by about 75%. That was the conclusion of a study by the CDC. In addition, Arizona actually had a state funded campaign called “Mask Up Arizona” encouraging people in Arizona to wear masks. Also, because the infection rate dropped dramatically here, that allowed Democrats in Arizona to actually have some vestige of a ground game where some people knocked on doors while wearing masks and encouraged people to vote. The lower COVID-19 infection rate meant that people were less afraid to either leave their house to drop off a ballot at a polling place or to stand in line and vote.
Yes, Arizona Actually Had A Bit Of A Ground Game Where People Knocked On Doors
Arizona actually had some ground game projects, such as The Arizona Ground Game. In addition, people actually came from California to knock on doors in Arizona. This was needed because Republicans still had a ground game in every battleground state in America. Throughout the pandemic, Donald Trump has told everyone that COVID-19 was nothing to worry about and the Trump Campaign actually devoted a decent chunk of money to having a ground game in every battleground state. Trump also had people dedicated to passing out yard signs, like this guy.
Democrats did not devote money to a ground game like the Republicans did, which is why I believe that Democrats did as badly as they did in places like Miami, Florida. According to reports that I read, Democrats in Miami were begging for money for a ground game, but the Biden campaign, because of COVID-19, really did not invest in a ground game where people would knock on doors.
Politicians would not spend all of the money on ground games if they were not effective. Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg invested a ton of money and effort for a ground game in Iowa and New Hampshire. Joe Biden did not. Guess who did much better in Iowa and New Hampshire than Joe Biden? The answer would be Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg.
I am not blaming the Biden campaign for not investing in a ground game during a pandemic. I have supported Biden for President from before he announced, and I do not blame Biden for not wanting people to knock on doors during a pandemic. However, I have been worried for months than Trump had a massive ground game and Biden did not.
Lots of people will say that the polls were wrong, but the polls cannot measure whether or not there is an ongoing pandemic, and they cannot measure whether or not a politician has a ground game. Polls measure what people believe, but not whether or not they will get their butts to a polling place or whether or not there are people knocking on their doors and encouraging them to vote. The polls were not wrong. People really do think Donald Trump stinks. Polls just cannot predict who will vote and who will not.