As I write this, results from Pennsylvania started to tickle in again, and Trump’s advantage fell from the overnight 156,000 to 136,000. The difference reduced by half a million yesterday and at least half a million remain to be counted, so I expect Biden to pull ahead before midday EST and move past recount territory by the evening at the latest, all but securing Biden’s election victory. Considering this speed, I don’t think the GOP can stop the count in time before the flip even if they succeed at the courts.
Observing the US elections from Europe with a very cynical eye (and getting even less sleep than your journalists), I get the impression that the Trump team made a miscalculation in its cynical and well-prepared attempt to steal the election: they set the stage perfectly by pre-emptively badmouthing mail-in votes in their communication, encouraging their own voters to turn out in person, and barring pre-election ballot counts; but they must have expected a slower count. Both their court action and their Brooks Brothers Riot 2.0 (which I was expecting with 100% certainty) came too late to prevent the flips; in Detroit’s case, too late to prevent Biden’s lead from moving well past recount territory.
From the communication of election boards, I also get the impression that this miscalculation was because they didn’t consider the effect of their rhetoric on the election boards themselves: no one wants to be at the centre of a media storm like in Florida 2000, so people did everything to speed up the count.
Still, if you allow me this criticism from outside, at least in Democratic-controlled areas, the counts could and should have gone even faster. There is no fundamental reason to prevent counting almost all ballots within one day (as we usually do it in Europe, irrespective of the size of the voting population), it is a question of preparing in advance and recruiting sufficient workforce.
-----
UPDATE: I assumed this is common knowledge from the news I follow, but multiple readers were surprised by the number of ballots still to be counted in Pennsylvania. Here is one fresh tweet on the subject:
---—
UPDATE 2: For the record, I was too optimistic: the Trump lawsuits did at least succeed in slowing the count in Philadelphia.
Philly’s counting of mail ballots has been slowed by a Trump legal challenge (The Philadelphia Inquirer)
For two hours at midday, the city’s count was paused altogether after the state Commonwealth Court ordered that Trump’s campaign observers had to be able to stand within six feet of any tables where counting is taking place in order to meaningfully monitor the process.
Afterward, city lawyers told a federal judge, workers sat tabulating ballots in only the first of several rows of tables, allowing observers to watch from behind metal barriers. That left the other tables empty, equipment unused, and ballots counted at a slowed pace.
Within hours of the order, the city appealed the ruling to the state’s top court, which has yet to decide whether it will resolve the matter. The counting of votes continues around the clock, but it will go slower unless that appeal is granted, said city commissioner Al Schmidt, one of Philadelphia’s three top elections officials.
We are talking about 350,000 ballots which should heavily favour Democrats. (As I write this, Trump’s advantage shrunk to just 22,389.)
---—
UPDATE 3: It’s now official: Pennsylvania flipped for Biden, too (after Georgia during the night). Now the only question is how high the margin will be.