Exit polls above shows a wild story. Bernie is winning voters under 45 by huge margins. Biden is winning voters over 45 by similar margins.
It is more extreme, but similar to what happened on Super Tuesday. And there are some things numbers just can’t capture:
Young people waiting three hours in line to vote. Will they do this for Biden? And it’s not just today, this has been the story since the beginning.
The Democratic primary is probably best understood as generational warfare. Young voters overwhelmingly want Sanders, and older voters are just as resolutely behind Biden. Look at these exit poll numbers from ABC News/Washington Post:
- 58 percent of voters ages 18-29 voted for Sanders; just 17 percent picked Biden
- 41 percent of voters ages 30-44 felt the Bern; 23 percent chose Uncle Joe
- It flipped with voters ages 45-64 (42 percent for Biden, 25 percent for Bernie)
- Then the 65-and-over crowd was even more lopsided (48 percent for Biden and 15 percent to Sanders)
— www.vox.com/...
More older voters have shown up to the primaries than young ones. That, above all, is why Biden is ahead in votes and delegates. These older voters may get their wish:
There’s nothing Bernie says that a majority of Democratic primary voters find objectionable, not even his description of himself as a Democratic Socialist. Strong majorities of primary voters support Medicare For All in exit polls. Only five years ago, this Democratic Socialist was at the very furthest edges of power in the Democratic party. Medicare For All, a Green New Deal, College for All, Justice and Safety for All, Housing for All, these were fantasies at the lefty-est fringes of the Democratic party. Today, they enjoy wide support among Democrats, independents and yes, even Republicans who want fundamental change.
Yet, as Biden promised to a room full of high-dollar donors a few months ago, “Nothing will fundamentally change”. And therein lies the risk.
This race is far from over yet (though I’m sure some on this blog will claim it is shortly). After tonight, 2,115 delegates will be left to be awarded. Bernie would need to win over 1,200 of them to get to 1990. That is a high bar. But polls swung 36% towards Biden purely on perception of general election strength and support within a matter of days. If that perception changes, you could see a 20% move in the other direction. And it could easily change. Only three weeks ago, Biden’s support on this site was in the single digits. That was emblematic. I continue to believe the Democratic establishment made a huge error by picking Biden. The tide can easily turn if the mistake is revealed.
Even if Biden ends up winning this primary (getting to 1990 pledged delegates), this is a very dangerous moment for the Democratic party. Not only because Biden is weak with young voters. But also because Biden is a weak candidate overall.
I’ll let Van Jones (who is by no means in the tank for Bernie) explain...
— @subirgrewal