As a Warren supporter, I’m deeply saddened by her campaign’s failure and demise. I still think she is/was the best candidate, and wish most Americans knew what they were missing.
I’m still holding out hope that Warren can parlay her widespread popularity into a VP spot, because whether the nominee is Biden or Bernie, Warren would imo make them both much, much stronger — not only as candidates, but as presidents.
As she considers all her options, there’s some important lessons she — and we — could learn from the world of pro wrestling. Seriously.
In wrestling, which as we all know is pure entertainment, a wrestler’s success is based entirely upon their ability to get the crowd worked up — whether rooting for them or hating them. Athletic skill helps, but it’s not the main thing. Hulk Hogan, for example, was a terrible wrestler in terms of his ‘work-rate’ (i.e. his actual ability to do cool pro wrestling moves), yet he’s arguably the most successful, popular pro wrestler of all time.
Obviously, politics is very different. But it’s similar in one respect: getting people (whether fans or voters) interested in you — talking and thinking about you — is key to success. Donald Trump understood this better than almost any politician ever has, and his presidency has been the moral and intellectual equivalent of an episode of ‘WWE Smackdown’.
Unlike wrestling, of course, politics is serious, and it’s not a spectator sport. The fact that under Trump our politics has come to resemble the WWE is lamentable and pathetic. Nevertheless, it can offer some insight as Warren considers whether and when to endorse either Bernie or Biden.
But before we get to that, let’s look at the pure politics of the situation.
The worst thing Warren could do is endorse Biden anytime soon. Biden already has momentum, a formidable lead, and plenty of key endorsements. Moreover, it’s obvious that his campaign’s sudden resurrection was largely a reaction to widespread fear of a Sanders nomination among mainstream and establishment Democrats. In short, the battle lines have been drawn. The primary has become a contest between the Center and the Left, moderates and progressives, the establishment vs insurgent radicals, etc.
Warren’s endorsement at this point isn’t likely to help Biden much, but it would greatly injure her credibility on the Left. Indeed, many progressives who support Bernie — as well as the many infamous online Berners — would view her as a traitor, a Judas willing to betray the progressive movement in exchange for the favor of party leaders. Given her record, this is totally unfair, but it’s reality. And managing perceptions of a politician, whether those perceptions are fair or not, is a big part of politics.
I believe Warren is correct when she positioned herself as the party’s ‘unity’ candidate. This is a terribly important role, not just for her, but for the party — and ultimately for the country. When the dust clears between Biden and Bernie, no other party member stands a better chance of convincing embittered progressives to bury the hatchet and support Biden against Trump, or conversely, to convince anxious, fearful mainstream Dems that Bernie and his campaign are sensible enough to lead the party and nation. Therefore, for the good of the party, she must walk a political tightrope to maintain credibility and avoid alienating either side.
The wisest decision might be to avoid endorsing either candidate until after the primary, and thereby remain above the fray, as she did in 2016. However, even that carries its own risks. Many progressives criticized her in 2016 for remaining on the sidelines, and it’s going to be much harder to do this time, given her candidacy and visibility. Because her policy positions are so closely aligned with Bernie’s, not endorsing him would be seen by many as a slap in the face, and a tacit endorsement of Biden.
But arguably the biggest downside to such a choice is that it greatly reduces her influence, and therefore her ability to unite the party. This is where the wrestling analogy comes in.
Wrestling audiences are often fickle, and a wrestlers’ popularity or notoriety at a particular moment is described as their ‘heat’, or how much the crowds actually care about watching their matches. Performing well on a consistent basis is good, but matters little if the audience isn’t interested in who you are and what you (or your wrestling persona) is doing. Not unlike politics.
Wrestlers can sometimes gain a lot of heat by teaming up with another, more popular wrestler. In wrestling terms, they pick up some of the other guy’s heat. They also can gain heat by going up against a more popular wrestler.
By endorsing Bernie and opposing Biden, Warren will gain a lot of heat with the progressive movement. What’s more, she’ll solidify her place as the natural leader of the progressive Left after Bernie either loses the race or (far less likely) leaves the presidency. And it’s almost certain that Bernie would name her as his running mate in that circumstance. It’s a tempting choice.
On the other hand, she might not believe Bernie is the best choice. I myself wrote a diary extolling the virtues of Warren over Bernie, but IF Warren were to parlay an endorsement of Bernie into a powerful, Dick Cheney-like role as VP, Bernie might turn out to be a far more effective Pres than most of us thought. Basically, if he allowed Warren to deal with Congress and take charge of most personnel decisions and domestic policy strategy, he might actually accomplish some of the things he’s been talking about.
Of course, the race is already looking like a repeat of 2016, with Biden likely to maintain his lead, and Bernie needing something like a miracle to catch up. If Warren throws her support behind Bernie, she might sacrifice her chance to be named VP if Biden wins. But I would hope Biden’s camp isn’t that short-sighted.
Despite my analogy, this is serious stuff, and the greatest leaders put the good of the people above their own self interests.
But here’s my point: by the time this primary is over, the Democratic Party will be as split as it was in 2016, if not moreso. Yet it is absolutely necessary that the party unite to defeat Trump. Warren can still play an invaluable role in bringing the party together — and she might be the only one who can. But to do that effectively, she needs to maintain her credibility with the insurgent Left. I believe the best way — maybe the only way — to do that is for her to endorse Bernie. It could be the start of her own political resurrection.