As you know, in a couple of days, we’ll hit 58,220 dead = 1 Vietnam War. Except instead of taking more than 10 years, it happened in two months. Clearly, at about 30,000 per month, the rate of American deaths is hugely faster than it was during the Vietnam War. How does it compare with rate of death in Vietnam?
One estimate puts the number of dead in Vietnam, on all sides, at about 1.3 million in the 10 year period from 1965-1974. 1.3 million / 120 months = about 11,000 deaths per month.
But Vietnam had a much smaller population than the US. The population of Vietnam was about 45 million in 1972. The population of the USA is about 330 million today. So to compare death rates per capita, you have to scale by about a factor of 7.
So, Vietnam’s death rate of 11,000 per month * 7 = 77,000 if scaled up to the population of the USA. To compare, 77,000 / 30,000 = about 2.5. So counting both March and April, we are within about a factor of 2.5 of the death rate during the Vietnam War.
But that’s actually a significant underestimate. The vast majority of American deaths have occurred in April. Taking data from here, and assuming an average death rate of 2000/day for the rest of the month, we’ll have about 59,105 deaths > 1 Vietnam War in April alone. 77,000 / 59,000 = 1.3
We are within about 30% of the death rate during the Vietnam War … in Vietnam!
But sure, let’s reopen the economy.
Act accordingly! Pretend you’re in the middle of the Vietnam War, and you’re living in Vietnam. Watch your back.