Sometime on April 10, 2020 (according to the John Hopkins data), the number of deaths due to COVID-19 in the U.S. ticked past 16,899, exceeding the number of Vietnam war deaths in 1968, the worst year for U.S. casualties in that miserable conflict. A scant 3 weeks later, as I am writing this diary, COVID-19 deaths surpassed the grimmer figure of 58,220, the death toll for the entire Vietnam war, a war that cost Lyndon Johnson his Presidency (and should have cost Richard Nixon his), a war so divisive that even the memorial to its dead was controversial. News outlets are starting to headline this milestone, but I suspect it will rapidly fade from view as the virus continues its inexorable march to still more horrific tallies. But seriously, more deaths than Viet-freaking-Nam? In 3 months?? Doesn’t that call for a National Day of Mourning or something? Or how about we ring the bell 58 times, once every 2 seconds; each ring signifying 1,000 COVID victims (come to think of it, that might be a nice way to start those idiotic briefings).
I am increasingly skeptical that the death toll will end up being less than 2 x Vietnam, and even larger multiples would not surprise me. My current reasons for pessimism are:
- Testing — still a complete clown show
- Undercounting which appears to be substantial, possibly as much as 60%
- Nursing homes Social distancing and other precautions may have slowed or delayed the entry of coronavirus into nursing homes, but once it arrives the consequences are devastating. 1.5 million people in the U.S. live in nursing homes. If 5% of them die, that’s 1.3 x Vietnam right there. For perspective, in the hardest-hit facility in my home state of Massachusetts, the Soldiers’ Home in Holyoke, 30% of residents have died from COVID-19 and the situation is not resolved yet. Oh, and another million people live in assisted living facilities, which are similarly vulnerable. Of course, there is no scientifically informed, well resourced national plan to keep these facilities safe.
- The trends are better but not good. Following a month of exponential growth, the number of new cases and deaths in the U.S. are growing more slowly, but are not coming down. New cases have been bouncing around between 25,000 and 30,000 per day for a month, deaths are still 1,500-2,000 per day (Johns Hopkins data). Compare this to Italy, which had a month of exponential growth followed by a 50% reduction in new cases per day over the next month, or Germany, which has seen an 85% reduction in new cases in the month following its peak.
- Premature loosening of restrictions threatens to blow the whole thing up again
I would love to have my sour outlook proven wrong, but for now I’m just not seeing it. By the way, 7 x Vietnam = WW2. Just sayin’.