I am not around near as much these days, busy on another project, at PoliticalFlare.com.
But as I stopped by to check in with friends, I was deeply concerned about one of the top-trending diaries. The diary about “Don’t worry about Trump refusing to leave.”
We DO need to worry about Trump not leaving office. The diary that is up misses the point entirely, and is directed at a situation no one doubts.
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If there is a consensus, and a electoral college Biden victory, then Trump can scream inside the White House all he wants. He won’t be president and Biden will order the proper forces (or whatever kind needed) to get him out. Period. NO ONE doubts this.
That isn’t what people mean when they say they fear Trump won’t leave.
It is far more complex and involves Trump’s love of manipulation prior to the election, lying prior to the election, cheating DURING the election, using FORCE during the election, then lying after the election, using his love of lawsuits immediately after the election, using his loyalist Trump governors and secretaries of states across the country, screaming RIGGED, STOLEN, ETC. to tie up the electoral college. all of THAT is the real fear. THAT is how Trump will “refuse to leave.”
He won’t abide a free and fair election.
AND HE MIGHT WIN: HERE IS HOW
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If Biden wins by 100 electoral college votes, it is over. It is very possible that if the election were held today, that Biden would win by such a large amount that it wouldn’t matter what Trump does.
But the election isn’t today and that’s why Trump-Barr-McConnell etc. haven’t “moved” yet. We will have an October surprise that will involve Barr in some way, a “show trial” with charges built upon lies, perhaps wholly made up. But it will “rock the country.” It may even be assisted by foreign powers.
Perhaps their move will be so ridiculous as to backfire. Perhaps COVID-19 and the economy make it all meaningless. That is our hope. But it’s only that — hope.
We best expect them to come up with something that would tighten the polls. They aren’t confined to reality. We are.
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The polls tighten. The race is closer.
Biden wins by 45 electoral votes spread across several purple states with “Trumpy Governors.” Trump immediately points at THOSE states — the ones with Trump governors — as the ones that are “RIGGED!” After all, Trump already told his supporters this would happen, he KNEW IT!!
Trump sues in those states in state court and in federal court to enjoin those states “until the real winner can be sorted out.”
The states with Trump governors never really get around to finalizing the winner — it’s just too complex, like Florida in 2000, only there is “no winner.” They can’t pull off a “Trump victory,” they just can’t “ensure a Biden win.” Thus, those states refuse to send delegates to vote in the electoral college. The United States Supreme Court rules only that the Electoral college vote on December 14, 2020, the electoral college votes.
With those four states missing neither candidate gets 270 votes.
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By the constitution, if neither candidate gets 270 votes, the House of Representatives selects the president.
Cool!
No, not cool, indeed it’s one of those “only in the United States” things that is just so awful.
In the House of Representatives the vote is by state alone, one vote per state, the vote of that state determined by a vote among that state’s Representatives. Wyoming’s one representative cancels out California’s 40 something. One vote per state, 750,000 people cancel 40 million.
Currently, there is no conceivable way that the House of Representatives would vote in any way but 26 Republican votes and 24 Democratic votes. It is AGAIN a minority slanted process.
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Unless Republicans from two states (I don’t know who breaks a tie, but someone here will know — and it’s a non-issue unless ...) unless a few Republicans from two states decide they need to abide by the popular will and not allow a stolen election, Donald Trump wins.
The country is thrown into chaos because the vote is so obviously “rigged” — only by Trump.
THAT is how Trump “Refuses to leave.” No sane person doubts that Biden won. But the power hungry Trump-Republicans do not care any longer. They are fascists and are FINE with the country knowing Trump lost, and yet remains president. Chaos be damned, the storm troopers will kill until everyone is subdued.
We are a fascist nation, no different than Russia.
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If you recall, Chris Wallace’s question was “will you accept an election loss?” Trump said “We’ll see.”
He WILL NOT accept a loss at the ballot box, and he’ll order Trumpy governors (who are probably happy to help) to get their votes tangled up in chaos. Foreign powers will help with that chaos.
There will be “two winners.” There will be Biden winning the vote itself, including consensus reality, and there will be Trump winning tying everthing up to get to a House of Representatives vote “win.”
The ONLY way to blow up this plan is to make the victory so overwhelming that even those states can’t do it, or Trump can’t find the right states to deprive the 270. That’s why Trump is so furious right now. He expected to AT LEAST be close enough to steal it, and probably close enough to “steal” an outright electoral college win, just like last time.
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THIS is what should terrify you into action because it is the most likely scenario in a CLOSE election. Trump will NOT, under any circumstances, accept losing an election to Biden that is even remotely close.
THAT is what people mean when they say “He will refuse to leave peacefully.” Trump will not accept the vote results as normally tabulated. And THIS YEAR it’s even easier because no one expects a winner declared on election night because so much voting will be done by mail.
Trump will declare Florida RIGGED! Before there is even a proposed winner.
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Get going. It must be overwhelming. And for the love of god, anyone with any influence over protesters stop protesting at night. Period. Protest peacefully during the day. Use your influence. Trump intends to use his stormtroopers at the end of October and November to ensure the riots aren’t out of control as he steals the election.
Rioting is the only thing that scares the middle of the road voter, the only thing that gives power to “LAW AND ORDER” — he knows what he’s doing. STOP FEEDING HIM WITH THE PROTESTS, IT WILL GET THE EXACT OPPOSITE RESULT!!!!!!!
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I want to add: I love criticism. It means people care. I hope I’m wrong and delusional, and will listen carefully as to why the above scenario is unlikely (bc it’s not “impossible”). But those saying it’s just “tiresome” are not helpful. I apologize if that exact scenario has been set out before. I don’t know.
But the scenario above is the most likely way, and the message is GOTV. The message is NOT “there is nothing we can do but fight” — no, it is get voters out bc yes, the vote can overwhelm the above scenario.
Thanks! And thanks for people challenging the scenario. It means you care. I don’t mind people thinking I’m wrong. I’m always learning. We should care enough to challenge each other.
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Peace, y’all
And sorry to scare the shit out of you.
4Cas