List of US House seats potentially endangered for 2022, in different degrees:
Calculus based on the 2020 result for the Democratic winner of the seat compared with the national reference average (presidential result, or US House popular vote in midterms).
Included the new provisional PVI calculed from 2016-2020 data for the cases where it is possible to obtain a provisional approximation (variation from 2012-2016 PVI, + change toward more Democratic PVI, — change toward more Republican PVI).
To note that the PVI is a 0 sum (that includes also the districtis not mentioned here). The PVI of the entire country is always EVEN. The PVI reflects not the movement of the entire country. It reflects the situation in relative terms between the different constituencies and also. Also the variations in the PVI are a 0 sum, and positive variations have compensation with negative variations.
Also to note that potentially endangered seats is not the same that sure loses.
Seats potentially endangered if 2022 is a 55.23% D year like 1982 = 0
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Seats potentially endangered if 2022 is a 54.30% D year like 1986 = 0
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Seats potentially endangered if 2022 is a 53.12% D year like 2018 = 1
MN-02: EVEN (+2)
Seats potentially endangered if 2022 is a 52.93% D year like 2008 = 1 (the previously cited plus...)
-
Seats potentially endangered if 2022 is a 52.06% D year like 1990 and 2006 = 3 (the previously cited plus...)
NV-03: R+2 (=0)
IA-03: R+3 (-2)
Seats potentially endangered if 2022 is a 51.38% D year like 2020 =3 (the previously cited plus...)
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Seats potentially endangered if 2022 is a 51.06% D year like 2012 = 4 (the previously cited plus...)
MI-11: R+2 (+2)
Seats potentially endangered if 2022 is a 49.23% D year like 1996 = 24 (the previously cited plus...)
TX-15: D+3 (-4)
NJ-07: D+1 (+4)
IL-14: R+2 (+3)
NV-04: D+1 (-2)
TX-07: D+1 (+8)
MI-08: R+4 (=0)
VA-07: R+3 (+3)
PA-17: EVEN (+3)
WI-03: R+4 (-4)
NH-01: R+1 (+1)
GA-07: R+2 (+7)
OR-04: R+1 (-1)
VA-02: R+1 (+2)
AZ-01: R+2 (=0)
PA-08: R+5 (-4)
WA-08: D+1 (+1)
PA-07: EVEN (-1)
TX-32: R+1 (+4)
IL-17: R+2 (-5)
OR-05: D+2 (+2)
Seats potentially endangered if 2022 is a 48.38% D year like 2000 = 27 (the previously cited plus...)
OH-13: D+1 (-6)
IL-06: D+3 (+5)
ME-02: R+6 (-4)
Seats potentially endangered if 2022 is a 48.27% D year like 2004 = 28 (the previously cited plus...)
FL-13: EVEN (-2)
Seats potentially endangered if 2022 is a 48.18% D year like 2016 = 30 (the previously cited plus...)
CA-49: D+4 (+5)
NJ-05: R+1 (+2)
Seats potentially endangered if 2022 is a 47.28% D year like 1998 = 35 (the previously cited plus...)
NJ-03: R+3 (-1)
NJ-11: EVEN (+3)
KS-03: D+1 (+5)
CA-45: D+3 (+6)
NH-02: D+1 (-1)
Seats potentially endangered if 2022 is a 45.65% D year like 1988 = 46 (the previously cited plus...)
NC-01: D+3 (-2)
MI-05: D+1 or EVEN (-4 or -5)
GA-06: D+1 (+9)
CA-03: D+5 (=0)
NY-19: R+3 (-1)
CT-05: D+2 (=0)
AZ-02: D+2 (+3)
CA-10: EVEN (=0)
FL-07: D+3 (+3)
TX-34: D+5 (-5)
MN-03: D+6 (+5)
Seats potentially endangered if 2022 is a 45.32% D year like 2014 = 49 (the previously cited plus...)
NY-18: R+1 (=0)
NY-03: D+3 or D+2 (+2 or +1)
FL-09: D+3 (-2)
Seats potentially endangered if 2022 is a 45.24% D year like 2002 = 50 (the previously cited plus...)
PA-06: D+5 (+3)
Seats potentially endangered if 2022 is a 44.81% D year like 2010 = 52 (the previously cited plus...)
NY-04: D+4 (=0)
IL-03: D+5 or D+6 (-1 or =0)
Seats potentially endangered if 2022 is a 44.75% D year like 1994 = 54 (the previously cited plus...)
VA-10: D+6 (+5)
CA-07: D+5 (+2)
Only a few seats with new 2016-2020 PVI of D+5 or under it would remain safer at this level: IN-01: D+4 (-4), MI-09: D+4 (=0), WA-10: D+5 (=0), RI-02: D+4 (-2), GA-02: D+4 (-2), CT-02: D+2 (-1) and CA-36: D+4 (+2). In these districts the incumbent is overperforming the district average, but it can change later in the decade, by change or icumbent or other causes.
In the case of open seats, it is possible to see more seats endangered.
Worse than a 44.5% D year, seems to require very likely, exceptional situations like in 1992 with very strong vote to third parties, or 1984. All the rest of the cases in the last 40 years have been covered in the list.
A bad year in 2022 can not be assured, but neither can be rejected, and at this point it is better to prevent.
Of course it is necessary to take into account that all the districts will be modified by redistricting. It means the redistricting process can have a positive impact.
And the purpose of this analysis is just to find the potentially endangered districts for 2022, in order to provide them later the necessary improvement, in the right amount, to avoid the negative effects and the damage of a potential bad year in 2022 or later in the decade.
Also this analysis helps to find the overall level of safety necessary to avoid the risks of a bad year in 2022 or later in the decade.
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The second part of the analysis for the next cycle, and the next decade, is to find the US House seats vulnerable to the Apportionment, and to the Redistricting process.
In overall terms it is possible to advance that Im not pesimistic about the overall result of the Redistricting process. The conditions are better than in 2010.
Also it is possible to do something similar at state legislature level, with the two parts of the analysis.
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PS1: If you want to see the results of the new 2016-2020 PVI for the 50 states, you can see them in the following comment.
www.dailykos.com/...
It is usefull and enlightening data.
PS2: In the poll of this diary you have the option of giving your own prediction about the result of the Democratic Party in 2022. We can make a mathematical compositon with all the votes to obtain an our own overall prediction, that would be included in the diary, in some update..
After XX votes, the overall prediction for 2022 would be = XX.XX% D.
Monday, Feb 22, 2021 · 12:45:38 PM +00:00
·
abgin
Included new provisional 2016-2020 PVI for the districts of PA.
The calculus of the new provissional 2016-2020 PVIs are based on public data. The work of Daily Kos Elections to provide the 2020 results by congressional districts, made them a very appreciated source to complete the calculus until to have the provisional data for all the competitive districts.
www.dailykos.com/...