Polling indicates that the governor’s race in Virginia is a toss-up.
Youngkin actually leads, slightly, in the latest polls —
After chipping away at McAuliffe’s small margin all fall.
Not to mention McAuliffe’s retro Clintonian baggage.
As goes McAuliffe, so goes the lieutenant governor race.
Both Ayala and Sears have powerful personal stories.
The attorney general race is less linked to the results for governor.
Yet, ticket splitting has declined dramatically in the U.S. over the past decade.
Today’s polling tie is a 10% drop from the 2020 presidential results —
Where Biden defeated Trump in Virginia 54% to 44%.
Five factors all disfavor the Democrats:
1. Trump isn’t running; he isn’t even in office. A significant portion of the 2020 margin may have been swing voters disgusted with Trump.
2. Gasoline prices — Nov. 2020 — $2.08; Nov. 2021 — $3.39. Yes, gas prices in 2020 were abnormally low, but surburban swing voters are car commuters.
3. Homicide rates — Richmond’s homicide rate increased 40% in 2021 after rising 20% in 2020. Despite many reasons for this, the GOP has gained over the past 60 years when it happens.
4. Covid — VA full vaccination rate — 63% ; VA Covid deaths — 13,907. Even though the unvaccinated are mostly GOP, 25% of Covid deaths have occurred since Aug. 1. Covid fatigue may work against the party in office; it makes no scientific or political sense.
5. Motivation — A 20% gap in “Very Likely” voters. In general, Dems have lower off-year election turnout. This year the Goppers are frothing.
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If 5% of those who voted for Biden vote Republican, it will produce a total 10% swing. (Or if 3% switch and there is a 4% turnout differential or various other combinations.) These are mostly middle-class, suburban voters in the Richmond, Norfolk, and DC areas. They have little to no party affiliation and are generally alienated from the politial process. I think it highly unlikely that 2020 Virginia Trump voters will vote Democratic.
I believe this will occur and the Democrats will lose all three top races by a small margin.
PS — Call it the Extended Bradley Effect or whatever, but polling in national and state races has shown a persistent Democratic bias. The FiveThirtyEight final national polling average in 2020 was Biden by 8.4% — the actual result 4.5%; a minus 3.9% differential. Virginia state polls were Biden +11.8% — it was +10.1%; a minus 1.7% differential. This has been much discussed since the 2016 fiasco.