I think we had better take Manchin at his word. He will consider a talking filibuster, but not the absolute abolition of the filibuster.
If that is the best we can get, then we have to plan how we would deal with it.
IIRC, every senator is entitled to speak twice on every issue. I’m assuming that filibuster reform includes some limit on filibusters on “motions to proceed to a vote,” and similar non-substantive votes – something like a limit of half an hour for each side for anything but appointments that does not need the concurrence of the House.
If we assume that every Republican will participate and that the average will be 10 hours per speech, that would be 1000 hours per filibuster. That is something less than 42 days, or 6 weeks.
Democratic Congressional leadership, with consultation with the President and input from progressive organizations, should divide legislative priorities into four classes
- Areas in which Democrats will negotiate with Republicans,
- Areas in which Democrats will use reconciliation,
- Areas in which Democrats will tolerate a filibuster,
- Areas in which Democrats will propose but will put off if Republicans threaten a filibuster.
“Tolerate” sounds too passive a word. I mean by section 3, that Democrats will push forward if they have to wait for six weeks until Republicans are talked out and they can pass it. While Republican senators are talking on the senate floor, state and national Democratic parties should be running ads telling their constituents how they are keeping Congress from doing its job and what the benefits are of the legislation which they are trying to stop.
Assuming that Congress can merge the two voting-rights bills that the House passed, that merger should be on the Senate floor reasonably soon after the filibuster reform is passed. A great many Republicans believe, perhaps rightly, that they won’t win enough elections to get a majority if this law passes. We have to assume that this will be the longest filibuster that they can put up.
Assuming that most of the infrastructure bill – but not quite all – can pass through reconciliation, then the next filibuster should be the minimum wage. These two should probably be the only filibusters of 2021.
The next bill that we pass over a filibuster should probably be statehood for DC.
We should be careful that the only bills that we pass over the filibuster are ones that garner large majority of popular support.
I started out saying that congressional and party leaders should decide which bills to push against a filibuster. Then I make particular suggestions. Well, it’s not a proposal without concretions.