Edit: When I originally wrote this I listed 20 counties as using ES&S machines. A friend helpfully noted that I missed two counties, Jefferson and Clay. Jefferson being the biggest county in the state by population by far. Boneheaded miss on my part.
Edit 2: Fixed a few lines in the data that were noted in the comments. My thanks.
The conspiracy theory that Kentucky’s Senate 2020 election was stolen from Amy McGrath by that villain Mitchell McConnell via hacked ES&S voting machines keeps cropping up on Twitter and occasionally here. Let’s dive right in.
I trace it’s roots to this twitter thread by Alison Greene and her original article:
www.dcreport.org/…
She takes two pieces of data, voter registration in certain Kentucky counties and Mitch McConnell’s poor approval ratings and extrapolates that McConnell stole the election because counties that are very Democratic on paper could never vote GOP. Coupled with McConnell’s poor approval ratings and that these ancestral Democratic counties voted GOP she things something is rotten in the Bluegrass State. She focused on counties that used ES&S voting machines. Let’s take a look at those counties along with voter registration data from 2020.
(note: At this point in this diary I lament at how many counties we have in this state):
voting machines by county: elect.ky.gov/...
Senate voting results by county (scroll down): www.politico.com/…
voter registration by county for 2020: elect.ky.gov/…
2020 results by county: elect.ky.gov/...
(I’m using Nov 2020 since the election was Nov 2020)
ES&S counties:
County (McConnell/McGrath) ~ (2020 Nov GOP registration/Dem registration)
1) Breathitt: (3738/1652) ~ (1596/9484) **
2) Clay (6242/1016) ~ (12533/1803)
3) Clinton: (3969/729) ~ (6555/1088)
4) Elliott: (1958/868) ~ (901/4245) **
5) Floyd: (10737/4924) ~ (6358/22171) **
6) Jackson: (5168/689) ~ (8533/1245)
7) Jefferson (145547/230750) ~ (207242/363091)
8) Johnson (7898/1868) ~ (11449/6074)
9) Knott: (4331/1664) ~ (1963/8886) **
10) Knox: (10291/2413) ~ (17457/6443)
11) Laurel: (22040/4883) ~ (36169/10292)
12) Lee: (2114/560) ~ (3394/1656)
13) Leslie: (4061/562) ~ (7254/825)
14) Lincoln: (7820/2521) ~ (10013/7388)
15) Magoffin: (3857/1393) ~ (3734/5933) **
16) Martin: (3348/497) ~ (5288/7250) **
17) Menifee: (2071/882) ~ (1719/3633) **
18) Morgan: (3918/1378) ~ (2171/6807) **
19) Pendleton: (4993/1570) ~ (5196/4675)
20) Powell: (3642/1591) ~ (3615/5982) **
21) Rockcastle: (6194/1225) ~ (10037/2073)
22) Wolfe: (1912/945) ~ (949/4528) **
McConnell actually squeaks by in these counties 265,849 to 264,580. It should be noted that Jefferson Co. does a lot of lifting as it’s the location of Louisville, Kentucky’s most liberal county and population center. Excluding Jefferson Co and McConnell takes these counties with a commanding 120,302 to 33,830 over McGrath for a margin of 86,472 excluding Louisville.
(Hypothetical: I note these numbers only because if they were completely reversed and McGrath were given 120,302 votes to add to her Louisville total of 230,750 she still wouldn’t clear the vote margin of 417,058 that McConnell won by. Even if the Louisville numbers were flipped McConnell would still win based on the margins on Hart Machines)
All county data:
County (McConnell/McGrath) ~ (Nov 2020 Registered GOP/Registered DEM)
1) Adair (6753/1623) ~ (9946/3301)
2) Allen (6949/1919) ~ (10118/4461)
3) Anderson (9021/3663) ~ (8937/8608)
4) Ballard (3155/936) ~ (2329/3945) **
5) Barren (13341/5600) ~ (15689/14831)
6) Bath (3537/1827) ~ (2552/6682) **
7) Bell (7346/2159) ~ (12052/8003) **
8)Boone (41729/22450) ~ (62938/34769)
9) Bourbon (5807/3477) ~ (5560/8290) **
10) Boyd (12909/7915) ~ (17411/17827) **
11) Boyle (8418/5445) ~ (10226/11150) **
12) Bracken (3042/987) ~ (2223/4205) **
13) Breathitt (3738/1652) ~ (1596/9484) **
14) Breckinridge (6937/2764) ~ (8785/6357)
15) Bullitt (28040/11896) ~ (32285/24720)
16) Butler (4471/1239) ~ (7262/2026)
17) Caldwell (4452/1675) ~ (3918/5777) **
18) Calloway (10635/6180) ~ (12337/16213) **
19) Campbell (26237/20600) ~ (37847/31791)
20) Carlisle (2009/541) ~ (1460/2506) **
21) Carroll (2560/1299) ~ (2233/5389) **
22) Carter (7725/3253) ~ (9016/9901) **
23) Casey (5775/1027) ~ (9237/1791)
24) Christian (13523/9130) ~ (21815/27859) **
25) Clark (11120/6212) ~ (13204/14063) **
26) Clay (6242/1016) ~ (12533/1803)
27) Clinton (3969/729) ~ (6555/1088)
28) Crittenden (3163/869) ~ (3733/2426)
29) Cumberland (2446/610) ~ (4426/769)
30) Daviess (28087/18383) ~ (32517/39260) **
31) Edmonson (4408/1383) ~ (6615/2618)
32) Elliott (1958/868) ~ (901/4245) **
33) Estill (4783/1515) ~ (6336/3714)
34) Fayette (58919/90137) ~ (89526/132403)
35) Fleming (5041/1743) ~ (4969/5602) **
36) Floyd (10737/4924) ~ (6358/22171) **
37) Franklin (11990/13091) ~ (11619/25670)
38) Fulton (1489/810) ~ (1467/3659) **
39) Gallatin (2563/974) ~ (2815/3327) **
40) Garrard (6371/1959) ~ (8811/3747)
41) Grant (7957/2544) ~ (9751/7331)
42) Graves (12334/3939) ~ (10460/14693) **
43) Grayson (8571/2633) ~ (12604/ 5103)
44) Green (4472/1074) ~ (5884/2512)
45) Greenup (11622/5673) ~ (13660/14550) **
46) Hancock (2729/1580) ~ (3225/3366) **
47) Hardin (27448/19221) ~ (40067/40289) **
48) Harlan (8637/1892) ~ (8792/10953) **
49) Harrison (5911/2565) ~ (5468/7935) **
50) Hart (5805/2123) ~ (6329/7068) **
51) Henderson (11510/8256) ~ (11933/21776) **
52) Henry (5259/2431) ~ (5534/6197) **
53) Hickman (1610/512) ~ (1403/2133) **
54) Hopkins (14247/6066) ~ (14648/18622) **
55) Jackson (5168/689) ~ (8533/1245)
56) Jefferson (145547/230750) ~ (207242/363091)
57) Jessamine (16488/8861) ~ (22433/16331)
58) Johnson (7898/1868) ~ (11449/6074)
59) Kenton (44700/34461) ~ (66396/54989)
60) Knott (4331/1664) ~ (1963/8886)
61) Knox (10291/2413) ~ (17457/6443)
62) Larue (5137/1747) ~ (5057/5403) **
63) Laurel (22040/4883) ~ (36169/10292)
64) Lawrence (5089/1520) ~ (6681/5303)
65) Lee (2114/560) ~ (3394/1656)
66) Leslie (4061/562) ~ (7254/825)
67) Letcher (6441/2245) ~ (5748/10246) **
68) Lewis (4500/991) ~ (7722/2182)
69) Lincoln (7820/2521) ~ (10013/7388)
70) Livingston (3201/1110) ~ (3148/4223) **
71) Logan (8180/3503) ~ (7531/10405) **
72) Lyon (2884/1204) ~ (2605/3620) **
73) McCracken (20883/11627) ~ (24165/28315) **
74) McCreary (5179/889) ~ (8328/2400)
75) McLean (3211/1241) ~ (2913/3797) **
76) Madison (26069/16271) ~ (34398/31426)
77) Magoffin (3857/1393) ~ (3734/5933) **
78) Marion (5274/3144) ~ (3894/9274) **
79) Marshall (12384/4532) ~ (10863/14094) **
80) Martin (3348/497) ~ (6200/1893)
81) Mason (4999/2601) ~ (5288/7250) **
82) Meade (9070/4225) ~ (11124/10326)
83) Menifee (2071/882) ~ (1719/3633) **
84) Mercer (7956/3247) ~ (8641/8729) **
85) Metcalfe (3538/1129) ~ (4173/3344)
86) Monroe (4320/763) ~ (7346/1047)
87) Montgomery (8345/3983) ~ (8093/11708) **
88) Morgan (3918/1378) ~ (2171/6807) **
89) Muhlenberg (9222/4175) ~ (7807/14147) **
90) Nelson (14219/7940) ~ (14478/17800) **
91) Nicholas (2151/1088) ~ (1495/3796) **
92) Ohio (7619/2765) ~ (10183/6887)
93) Oldham (22025/14715) ~ (31174/18919)
94) Owen (3958/1235) ~ (3548/4402) **
95) Owsley (1517/280) ~ (2492/931)
96) Pendleton (4993/1570) ~ (5196/4675)
97) Perry (7390/2788) ~ (6561/13163) **
98) Pike (18366/6017) ~ (17471/28855) **
99) Powell (3642/1591) ~ (3615/5982) **
100) Pulaski (23900, 6120) ~ (35533/10761)
101) Robertson (796/288) ~ (476/1240) **
102) Rockcastle (6194/1225) ~ (10037/2073)
103) Rowan (5403/4175) ~ (5823/9198) **
104) Russell (6919/1552) ~ (11007/2737)
105) Scott (16408/11251) ~ (21916/18948)
106) Shelby (14113/8332) ~ (17448/14861)
107) Simpson (5302/2976) ~ (6055/7503) **
108) Spencer (8026/2827) ~ (9067/6005)
109) Taylor (8637/3279) ~ (10769/7254)
110) Todd (3567/1464) ~ (3100/5371) **
111) Trigg (5000/2034) ~ (6098/5600)
112) Trimble (2889/1183) ~ (2556/4544) **
113) Union (4351/1803) ~ (3257/6845) **
114) Warren (29719/23347) ~ (39401/42020) **
115) Washington (4107/1769) ~ (3937/4803) **
116) Wayne (6689/1978) ~ (10149/4420)
117) Webster (4029/1600) ~ (3303/5899) **
118) Whitley (11634/2887) ~ (20863/5844)
119) Wolfe (1912/945) ~ (949/4528) **
120) Woodford (8119/6612) ~ (9222/11062) **
**To signify counties that have more registered Democrats than Republicans but had more McConnell than McGrath voters)
Kentucky Senate election :
McConnell/Mcgrath (1233315/816257) McConnell +417,058
Voter registration GOP/DEM as of 2020 election (1578612/1670574) Dem + 91,962
(I transcribed all this by hand to notebook then back to computer while fighting a two year old. I will own any mistakes in the data lol)
So in all that data by my count 65 of Kentucky’s 120 counties have more registered Democrats than Republicans but had more Republican votes in the 2020 Senate election. Dems are seriously underwater in this state compared to voter registration. 10 of the 22 counties were using ES&S machines while the other 55 were using Hart machines. Instead of wallowing in conspiracy theories I would advocate Kentucky is swinging GOP rapidly and the voter registration data just hasn’t caught up. Ancestral conservative Democrats have been swinging to the GOP across the state for at least two decades but it was super charged by Trump. The ES&S voting machine is just not a thing when the vast majority of the votes in Kentucky were cast on other hardware.
Using the same website: elect.ky.gov/…
Looking at the voter registration data we can see that the state is shifting. In Jan 2017 the Dems had about a 340k vote advantage. By May of 2021 the advantage had slipped to around 80k. My guess is we will officially be a Republican state by the 2022 midterms. We’ve been a Republican state for a long time at the federal level (no state wide elections since 1996 with Bill Clinton) and are rapidly becoming solid GOP at the state level. Our state legislature flipped from 53-47 in 2016 to 75-25 by 2020. Every statewide office is now GOP except Governor where Andy Beshear squeaked by the hated Matt Bevin in 2019. This state is a Republican state. Sadly. Sadly sadly sadly.
But back to Alison Greene. She cherry picked a few counties that had rarely or never voted for McConnell as evidence of fraud. Most notably Breathitt, Elliott and Wolfe which are all eastern working class counties that are all 95% white with low college levels. Let’s take Breathitt.
Breathitt Co voted 3738 — 1632 for McConnell, the second time he took the county as Greene noted. But let’s look at the county over time:
All data from elect.ky.gov’s election results elect.ky.gov/...
1984 McConnell 1600 — 4082 Huddleston
1990 McConnell 1143 — 2044 Sloane
1996 McConnell 1416 — 2986 S. Beshear
2002 McConnell 1817 — 2590 Weinberg
2008 McConnell 1955 — 3111 Lundsford
2014 McConnell 2430 — 2062 Grimes
2020 McConnell 3738 — 1632 McGrath
I would call that pretty compelling evidence over time of a political shift. It’s not like these numbers are coming out of nowhere. Her other question concerning Breathitt County is why there are so many registered voters (11080) compared to the 2019 projected population (12726) to which I would point out Breathitt Co. like most of southeastern Kentucky has been losing large portions of their populations as coal jobs are disappeared since the high point in the 1940s-60s and that the voter registration numbers hadn’t caught up.
Let’s take another of those counties though Greene mentioned. Wolfe Co.
2020 1912/945 for McConnell.
2014 1134/1180 against
2008 1120/1886 against
2002 1039/1297 against
1996 801/1209 against
1990 499/869 against
1984 789/1452 against
I would again call this middling to growth toward McConnell but these are the most ancestral of Democratic counties. Look I can’t go all day with this blog but we can’t ignore McConnell’s other superlatives. He’s the majority leader and has huge name recognition. He’s a bastard but “he’s our bastard” would say many a conservative person in Kentucky. Kentucky’s federal elections are very nationalized. Gun rights, abortion, conservative judges, and social conservatism play in Kentucky. Despite the poverty of much of rural Kentucky they just don’t seem to care and have shifted to the GOP.
It should also be noted that many of these ESS counties (Breathitt, Wolfe, Magoffin, etc) are coal counties. We can’t forget the shellacking that Obama took from right wing media on coal. The zeitgeist in Kentucky largely absorbed was that Obama was killing coal jobs with EPA regulations and that Trump was going to bring those jobs back.
Onlookers should take note that while their is a border between Kentucky and West Virginia culturally the people of Eastern Kentucky are very similar to their coal producing brethren in the mountains of West Virginia. WV was solidly Democratic in 1996 and has crept rightward in tandem with Kentucky. The political realignment going on in that state is fairly consistent with Kentucky. West Virginia still has a slim Democratic voter registration edge despite voting for Trump by 39 points in 2020.
Let’s also not forget our departed President Trump was on the ticket in 2020 in Kentucky. Trump received about 5% more vote than McConnell but in a 25 point GOP state that would bolster the argument that some people did vote McGrath but also voted Trump but she would have had to overcome a 25 point headwind and she’s not Joe Manchin. Kentucky also has straight party voting and the first question is “would you like a straight ticket vote”, even before President. A lot of people vote that way and never even saw McConnell’s name.
Look I would gladly wish McConnell gone and any Democrat in his place. But this voter fraud argument is just nonsense. But I again put forward the challenge to the brave to go forth to any Kentucky county you wish that voted GOP despite a large number of registered Dems and find the Dems who were disenfranchised by the villains at ES&S.