I want to start with the Quote from the head of Manpower Inc. "Workers are acting like consumers". That quote tells you what to expect in the numbers for the next couple of months. What has clearly happened is that with the support during the pandemic and the change in habits workers especially on the lower end of the wage scale have become much more selective and so are not rushing to the first job offered.
Today’s BLS report is much as you would expect, even if the totals were a bit less than Wall Street expected. The parts of the economy that are now opening up Hospitality, Education and Health Care (outside of hospitals) showing the most gain. Those already open through out showing little movement except the re-balancing from critical to less critical parts of there industries. Retail food service (grocery stores) declined but you would expect that as Hospitality food service jobs increase (different supply chains). Wages rose but that looks to have come mostly from the lower end of the wage scale.
These numbers are going to be bouncing around the general upward trend and until schools open in the fall remain very volatile and less than predictive.
We will soon see just what the benefit cut offs introduced in Red states will do. I don’t expect all that much as the mid July child tax credits will temper that. The work at home trend continues to decline and become more partial this indicates that commercial building will rebound as the year move on. Both wages and commodities are impacting inflation, but that should slow.
Overall a good number that indicates a solid but longer lasting recovery. However without the stimulus plans expect a higher level of unemployment overall as we have adjusted to doing more with less.