Robert A. Pape says that the risk factor that drove the January 6 insurrectionists to storm the US capitol was “Replacement Theory”. That is, the replacement of the “rights” of white people with the “rights” of black and hispanic people.
Robert A. Pape is the Director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats. Professor Pape was interviewed on May 6, 2021, on Amanpour & Co., available on YouTube. I ask someone to link the interview in the comments. Thanks in advance.
The subject of Professor Pape’s talk was:
1) What drove the capitol insurrectionists to storm the US capitol?
2) Where did the insurrectionists come from?
3) What are the risk factors for the general population to engage in future violence?
In his study, Pape and his group focused on the then currently arrested 420 people out of approximately 800 people who actually entered the capitol.
The group entering the capitol are the “insurrectionists” in the study. I will call them “stormers”.
Some patterns revealed are:
1) 93% were white.
2) 86% were male.
3) 7% were unemployed (then the national average).
4) 45% were over 34 years old.
5) Nearly 90% were not affiliated with militia groups or gangs.
The stormers were mature adults with family and jobs. They were CEOs, business owners, doctors, lawyers, mid-level corporate folks, realtors, etc.
The stormers were not desperate people. Hence, the usual solutions to redirect such people do not apply:
* “Get them a job” does not apply since they have jobs.
* “Get them a life” does not apply since most are family-stable (married with children).
* The majority of stormers are not the “usual suspects”, such as lone wolfs, militias, and gangs.
Pape’s group investigated where the 420 stormers came from. Over half of the stormers came from counties Biden won. From Chicago, Houston, SF, NYC, LA; indeed, at least one stormer hailed from Beverly Hills!
The study showed that the more rural the county, the less likely that county sent a stormer. The greater the county’s vote for Trump, the less likely that county sent a stormer.
The stormers were clearly pro-Trump so what was the “risk factor” for the 250 counties that produced the 420 identified stormers?
The biggest risk factor was demographics.
The statistically significant result is that the stormers came from counties where there arose a decline in the white population in that county viz-a-viz an increase in black and hispanic population (regardless of the vote of the county). Pape claims the odds of this result happening by chance is less than 1/1000. A/k/a the “Replacement Theory”.
After identifying Replacement Theory as the biggest risk factor, Professor Pape expands the analysis to identify the risk factor in the population at large.
According to Pape a “gold standard” polling firm (not named in the interview) was tasked with polling the following two questions:
1) Was the election stolen?
2) Would you willingly participate in a violent protest?
Four percent (4%) of the respondents said “yes” to each question (extrapolating to 10 million people). Pape calls this group “active supporters”.
The group that answered “yes” and “no”, Pape calls “tacit supporters”. [Unfortunately, the percentage of tacit supporters slipped through the interview without mention.]
The concern, obviously, is tacit supporters becoming radicalized over time morphing into active supporters. However, by now the interview is running long, as is this diary, and the issue is not plumbed.
Professor Pape’s interview ends with brief comments regarding future ramifications.
While the militias and gangs (Proud Boys, Oathkeepers, III-ers, etc) were a little over 10% of the stormers, 1/3 of that subset of stormers were former military members, possessing specialized knowledge and training in deadly weapons and tactics. [It is unclear if former law enforcement personnel are part of the 1/3.]
Professor Pape says such an military presence suggests that the US Military is a particularly susceptible demographic for Replacement Theory memes.
Pape ends by suggesting that the 2022 election cycle will soon be upon us and how much violence can we expect? We need to use science to act in advance of the election.
This ends my effort in setting forth the Pape interview and his analysis. If anyone desires, I invite others to follow up on my effort since I concede there are much better communicators on this board than I. Also, if this information has been previously posted (my search indicated it had not), let me know so that I can take appropriate actions.